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Is this Breakout for Real?

On Friday stocks closed above 1800 for the first time. Yet looking back to last week, when we got in this region, investors got scared and we retraced back to 1777.

So it begs the question: Is this breakout for real?

In the plus column is that right now investors are finding few reasons to be bearish. This lack of negativity often creates a natural pull higher for stocks.

In the negative column is that the Market Gods don't like when investors think it's too easy. So quite often just when everyone gets sucked into the breakout mentality the rug gets pulled and we head lower. As they say, the market likes to make as many people look foolish as possible.

Which outcome is more likely? In the short run it's a 50/50 proposition. Yet heading into next year we will certainly head above this level with 2000 a distinct possibility.

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Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity...pronounced "Righty")

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

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