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Economic Outlook: Archive
Once Upon a Time, When Interest Rates Were Above Zero...
by John Blank
The beginning of 2018 marked a brief time period in Interest Rate Land. Interest rates along the U.S. Treasury yield curve were inching higher, and the benchmark 10-year yield was manifesting itself above 3.0%.
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finance
U.S. Recession: Are We There Yet? Are We There Yet?
by John Blank
The latest Fed rate cut, the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and many other leading economic indicators are pointing in one direction only. It appears to be only a matter of time when we get there: a recession.
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finance
Fed Rate Cut: Policy Blunder or Strategic Prudence?
by John Blank
One might argue U.S. macro data is right where it should be. Thus, a key question emerges, to critiquing these macroeconomic times: Does an interest rate cut at this stage make sense?
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finance
Fed Rate Cut: Policy Blunder or Strategic Prudence?
by John Blank
One might argue U.S. macro data is right where it should be. Thus, a key question emerges, to critiquing these macroeconomic times: Does an interest rate cut at this stage make sense?
SPYPositive Net Change QQQPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
Trade War: Are We There Yet (Or Still Sabre-Rattling)?
by John Blank
Given recent developments, one might wonder -- how concerned should investors be? Will all of this ultimately be just noise?
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earnings
Has the U.S. Economy Shaken Off Recession Concerns?
by John Blank
U.S. quarterly GDP growth rates continue to surprise on the upside. This is leading perma-bear forecasters to push the recession's ETA further into the future.
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earnings finance
U.S. Economy: Just Slowing Down or Stalling?
by John Blank
Zacks Economists expect 2019 and 2020 to be characterized by a subdued and moderate -- but steady -- growth path, close to 2.0%.
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finance
Q4 GDP Growth at 2.6%, Better than Expected
by John Blank
While weaker than what we forecast (without amending), this is still a robust quarterly growth rate.
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finance
Is the Fed Done Raising Rates?
by John Blank
As the FOMC were in the process of reversing multiple years of near zero interest rates, the path back to rate 'normalization' was communicated relatively clearly to the public.
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finance
Is the Fed Done Raising Rates?
by John Blank
As the FOMC were in the process of reversing multiple years of near zero interest rates, the path back to rate 'normalization' was communicated relatively clearly to the public.
SPYPositive Net Change QQQPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
Is the Fed Done Raising Rates?
by John Blank
As the FOMC were in the process of reversing multiple years of near zero interest rates, the path back to rate 'normalization' was communicated relatively clearly to the public.
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finance
Key Themes to Follow Closely in 2019
by John Blank
We acknowledge valid uncertainties around trade wars and rising interest rates. Yet there are solid economic fundamentals across the board.
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finance
The Rodney Dangerfield Economy Persists
by John Blank
It still "can't get no respect" from the stock market. Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank explains.
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finance
Is 3%+ GDP Growth Sustainable, or Have We Peaked?
by John Blank
Proponents of the recent the economic courses of action argue the latest numbers are evidence of well-designed policies. Opponents question their sustainability.
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finance
Fed Drops 'Accommodative' from Verbiage
by John Blank
This indicates we might be close to its 'neutral' rate. Where do we go from here?
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Do Deficits Matter?
by John Blank
July marked the biggest increase in the U.S. trade deficit in 3 years. This occurred as the domestic economy continues to grow stronger, while demand abroad has weakened.
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Do Deficits Matter?
by John Blank
July marked the biggest increase in the U.S. trade deficit in 3 years. This occurred as the domestic economy continues to grow stronger, while demand abroad has weakened.
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U.S. GDP Growth for Q2 Clocks in at 4.1%
by Mark Vickery
Is this the new normal, or is there a fly in the ointment?
What Do 'Normal' Interest Rates Look Like?
by John Blank
Is it a Fed Funds rate close to the real neutral interest rate, now at 2.9%, is it an unemployment rate close to the NAIRU, or is it something else?
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Is the Phillips Curve the 'Loch Ness Monster' of Macroeconomics?
by John Blank
Is the inverse data relationship between higher consumer inflation as a consequence of a lower overall unemployment rate actually as robust as assumed?
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Are Higher Interest Rates a Threat to the Market?
by John Blank
Interest rates increase, stock markets decline and recession follows... is it that simple?
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Corporate Leverage: A Catalyst for the Next Downturn or Just Fuel to the Fire?
by John Blank
During this prolonged period of low interest rates, U.S. corporate debt has increased to levels above those seen prior to the financial crisis in 2008.
Have Reports on the Death of Low Inflation Been Greatly Exaggerated?
by John Blank
Most -10% stock market corrections like this last 2 months. So buckle your seatbelt until April.
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Economy Maintains Momentum, Though Inflation Stays Elusive
by John Blank
The double-digit growth driver within this fully employed part of the cycle is investment spending by U.S. rms.
Economic Outlook for 2018: Will the Goldilocks Scenario Persist?
by John Blank
2017 was characterized by a rare occurrence of solid economic growth with a tightening labor market below the level of natural employment.