Bears May Have Something Going

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Dec 13, 2012 (AdviceTrade via COMTEX) -- by http://www.advicetrade.com/ an AdviceTrade.com publication

Market Recap: SPX big winners were Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) 13.99%, J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCP) 6.93%, and Tesoro Corp (TSO) 3.36%. SPX big losers were Nabors Industries Inc (NBR) -4.75%, Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) -3.72%, and Range Resources Corp (RRC) -3.48%. SPX five day big winners are J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCP) 14.66%, Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) 14.24%, and Cliffs Nat'l Resources Inc (CLF) 10.62%. SPX five day big losers are priceline.com Inc (PCLN) -7.69%, Brown-forman Corp Cl B (BF.B) -7.15%, and Big Lots Inc (BIG) -7.13%. New Ten Day Highs: ADBE, ATI, ALTR, AMT, APOL, BBY, CAT, CTSH, GLW, CVS, DHR, DOW, EMN, ESRX, FMC, FTR, GME, GIS, GNW, HSY, HPQ, IP, MCK, MET, MCHP, MYL, ODP, BTU, JCP, PPG, PHM, SNDK, LUV, SPLS, SBUX, KBH, GOOG New Ten Day Lows: BCR, BMC, BF/B, COG, CPB, CBS, CF, CHK, CME, CINF, CL, STZ, DRI, DF, DFS, RRD, DPS, ROST, EBAY, EMC, FIS, FE, BEN, GPC, HCP, HD, IRM, LM, LEG, LXK, LLY, LMT, LO, MMC, MJN, MRK, PCS, NBR, NOV, NEM, PM, RL, PSA, QCOM, SHW, SJM, SWN, SYMC, ICE Volume & Breadth Indicators For the SPX Index there were 140 components advancing and 356 components declining. On the NYSE 3,155 issues were traded with 915 advancing issues and 2,128 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.33 to one declining. There were 48 new highs and 28 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 91 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 23 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 131. Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 2.46 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.01 and the final tick was -251. The five day average of TRIN is .83 and the ten day average of TRIN is .87. The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.51% today while the SPX lost -0.64%. For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -1.20% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 5 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 15 sessions ended on a positive tick, 5 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 90.5% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 98.3% of the last 10 day average and 89.8% of the previous day’s volume. Looking at the NYSE 15-second tick data, the total tick for the day was -70,000 and the average tick for the day was -45. There were 9 ticks greater than 600 and 6 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 1 ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. Moving Average and Support/Resistance Indicators: 39.4% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 55.2% are above their 10 day average, 68% are above their 20 day moving average, 58.2% are above their 50 day moving average, and 58.8% are above their 200 day moving average. There was one significant moving average crossover today as the SOX 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA.. Our moving average Power Rating is 70 of a possible 100. Sectors on the Move: Sectors stronger than the SPX for Thursday: - Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +35%. - Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +6%. - Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +30%. - Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +43%. - Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +23%. Sectors weaker than the SPX for Thursday: - Energy -- Underperformed the SPX by -31%. - Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -10%. - Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -26%. - Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -1%. Checking the sectors of the SPX: Summary: XLB: Buy XLE: Buy XLF: Buy XLI: Buy XLK: Buy XLP: Buy XLU: Buy XLV: Buy XLY: Buy The Basic Materials sector had 13 advancing issues and 17 declining issues. 20 components are on an uptrend (1 new uptrends today) and 11 components are on a downtrend (2 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed .91% above the 20-Day average. The Energy sector had 6 advancing issues and 37 declining issues. 25 components are on an uptrend (1 new uptrends today) and 18 components are on a downtrend (7 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 1.48% above the 20-Day average. The Financials sector had 17 advancing issues and 63 declining issues. 48 components are on an uptrend (2 new uptrends today) and 33 components are on a downtrend (20 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 2.06% above the 20-Day average. The Industrials sector had 18 advancing issues and 41 declining issues. 51 components are on an uptrend (2 new uptrends today) and 9 components are on a downtrend (4 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 2.35% above the 20-Day average. The four 'risk sectors' totaled 54 advancing issues and 158 declining issues today with 6 new uptrends and 33 new downtrends. 67.% of Risk Sector components are uptrending. The Technology sector had 22 advancing issues and 55 declining issues. 64 components are on an uptrend (3 new uptrends today) and 54 components are on a downtrend (9 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 1.1% above the 20-Day average. The Consumer Staples sector had 17 advancing issues and 25 declining issues. 27 components are on an uptrend (no new uptrends today) and 61 components are on a downtrend (4 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 1.69% above the 20-Day average. The Utilities sector had 6 advancing issues and 25 declining issues. 28 components are on an uptrend (no new uptrends today) and 68 components are on a downtrend (1 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 2.01% above the 20-Day average. The Health Care sector had 10 advancing issues and 42 declining issues. 45 components are on an uptrend (3 new uptrends today) and 75 components are on a downtrend (3 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 1.78% above the 20-Day average. The Consumer Discretionary sector had 31 advancing issues and 51 declining issues. 45 components are on an uptrend (3 new uptrends today) and 83 components are on a downtrend (11 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed 1.16% above the 20-Day average. Based on the SPX sector data, we are on a Buy for the SPX and the Russell 2000. What We Learned from Thursday's Action: Thursday was session 1 to close below the 5 DMA, session 18 to close above the 10 DMA, session 15 to close above the 20 DMA, and session 5 to close above the 50 DMA. This was also session 14 for the 5 DMA to close above the 20 DMA. One early sign of a sustainable rally or pullback is often a close above or below the 10 DMA. The SPX closed 2.62 points above the 10 DMA. The SPX 5 DMA is 1422.48, 10 DMA is 1416.83, 20 DMA is 1404.38, 50 DMA is 1415.73, 100 DMA is 1414.73, and 200 DMA is 1387.13. On Thursday the SPX traded below the opening range but did not trade above the opening range. 26% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 29.6% closed higher than the open. During Thursday's session the SPX lost -9.03 points from open to close. The SPX intraday trading range was 15.34 points. The 5-Day average intraday trading range is 10.4 points, the 10-Day average is 10.58 points, and the 20-Day average is 11.67 points. The trading range is contracting. The 5-Day SPX gain is 0.39%, the 10-Day gain is 0.25%, and the 15-Day gain is 2.04%. Note: The Opening Range Breakout is one of the simplest day trading set-ups to understand. The first hour of the trading day is the most volatile. Bears and bulls are battling it out in the stock market, trying to show you who’s going to be in charge for the day. If we break out of that trading range, it's telling us that new buying or selling is impacting traders' assessments of value. Looking back at today’s breakouts also helps us grasp sentiment going forward because when a clear trend is established it often carries through for several sessions. Looking Ahead: The Market Environment for Friday is +1. Greater than three is bullish and less than negative three is bearish. The short-term trend appears to be lower. Mel's 5-Day Oscillator is 44 and Mel's 10-Day Oscillator is 38 (below 35 is oversold and above 65 is overbought.) Based solely on the technicals, our bias is slightly bullish for Friday's session. The SPX closed today at a significant level of support, making Friday's action significant. Friday's action clearly has equal odds, either direction, without an edge either way. We suspect that we see a very modest up session before further work to the downside. But news events from those laughable guys in DC may dictate events. Friday, December 14 Economics 8:30 Consumer Price Index – consensus 1.9%, prior 2.2% 8:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.0%, prior 2.0% 8:58 Markit US PMI preliminary – consensus 52.0, prior 52.4 9:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.2%, prior -0.4% 9:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 78.0%, prior 77.8% 9:15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.9% 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range CNY Actual FDI 01:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 04:30 JPY Industrial Production 10:00 EUR Euro-zone Consumer Price Index Earnings After: Rick’s Cabaret (RICK) The PPI was down 0.8%, more than the expected drop of 0.5%. Jobless claims were 343,000, less than the expected 370,000. Retail sales rose 0.3%, less than the consensus rise of 0.6%. On Friday we will get the CPI, PMI mfg. index and industrial production. Thank you for reading. Think on it, trade on it, and be well. -Mel

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As of Sunday, 12-09-2012 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrendA? Alert,
an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on
03-29-2012 for BBY @ $24.72.

As of Sunday, 12-09-2012 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend Alert,
an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on
03-09-2012 for JCP @ $38.21.

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