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Real Time Insight

A coalition of western nations/NATO forces appears ready to strike Syrian targets in response to the use of chemical weapons.  Here are two questions for this morning’s RTI:  First, what do you think will be the impact of this event on the S&P 500 over the next week from 1640 (low at writing)?

1) Insignificant. The market shrugs off the conflict and trades flat to higher

2) Small - 0% to 2% loss

3) Moderate -  3% to 5% loss

4) Meaningful - greater than 5% loss

Second, what is the probability that the conflict spreads into Jordan and/or Israel?

1) Small less than 10%

2) Possible- between 11% and 30%

3) Realistic – between 31% and 60%

4) Good chance – 61% to 80%

5) Highly likely – 81% to 100%

Let me know where you stand with your responses below:

 

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