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Royal Gold (RGLD) Down 10.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Royal Gold (RGLD - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Royal Gold due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Royal Gold Earnings Surpass Estimates in Q1, Up Y/Y

Royal Gold reported adjusted EPS of 99 cents in first-quarter 2022, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 83 cents. The bottom line increased 18% year over year.

Including one-time items, the company reported EPS of $1.00 compared with the prior-year quarter’s 82 cents.

The company generated revenues of $162 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 14%. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $163 million. The upbeat performance can be attributed to higher gold sales at Mount Milligan and Andacollo, an increase in the average gold and copper prices, higher gold production at Cortez and contribution from the newly-acquired NX Gold stream and Red Chris royalty. However, these factors were partly offset by lower gold and silver stream sales from Pueblo Viejo.

Stream revenues were $105.3 million and royalty revenues were $57.1 million during the March-end quarter. Both stream and royalty revenues increased 10.5% and 21% year over year.

The company’s cost of sales came in at $23 million in the first quarter compared with the prior-year quarter’s $21 million.

General and administrative expenses amounted to $9 million, up 29% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA was $130 million in the reported quarter, up 15% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 80% compared with the prior-year quarter’s 79.6%.

Financial Position

Net cash from operating activities was $101 million in the first quarter compared with the prior-year quarter’s $92 million. Royal Gold ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of around $184 million compared with $144 million at the end of 2021.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.58% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Royal Gold has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Royal Gold has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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