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Is a Disappointment in Store for Winnebago's (WGO) Q4 Earnings?

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Winnebago (WGO - Free Report) is slated to release fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 results on Oct 19, before the market opens.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $2.99 and $1.20 billion, respectively.

For the current quarter, the consensus estimate for Winnebago’s earnings per share has been revised south by a cent in the past seven days. Its bottom-line estimates imply growth of 16.3% from the year-ago reported number. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year increase of 15.6%. Over the trailing four quarters, Winnebago surpassed earnings estimates on all occasions, with the average surprise being 30.73%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Winnebago Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Winnebago Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Winnebago Industries, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Winnebago Industries, Inc. Quote

Q3 Highlights

Winnebago topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings and revenues in the third-quarter fiscal 2022. Its adjusted earnings per share of $4.13 surpassed the consensus metric of $3.01 and surged 84% year over year. This outperformance was led by higher-than-anticipated revenues across all segments. It reported revenues of $1,458 million in the quarter that outpaced the consensus mark of $1,204 million and grew 52% year over year.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for the recreational vehicle (RV) maker for the quarter to be reported, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Winnebago has an Earnings ESP of -8.24%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.74 a share falls short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.99.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors at Play

The RV industry picked pace during the pandemic as remote working gained popularity and travel and vacations saw a demand surge once the pandemic restrictions were eased. However, sky-high inflation and interest rates in recent times have been a damper on the industry as recessionary fears loom large. These are likely to have affected RV travel to some extent, which might have weighed on deliveries of Winnebago in the to-be-reported quarter. The tight market conditions have increased the manufacturing costs of RVs, which are likely to have weighed on the margins as well.

Let’s take a look at the key fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 projections for the company’s segments.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues from the Towables segment is pegged at $647 million, indicating a decline from $806 million recorded in the previous quarter. The consensus mark for units sold in this segment is 17,171, decreasing from 17,675 units reported in the prior quarter. The estimate for adjusted EBITDA in the segment, pegged at $101 million, also suggests a decline from $118 million.

The consensus mark for revenues from the Motorhome segment is $453 million, declining from $516 million recorded in the previous quarter. The estimate for units sold is 2,812, decreasing from 3,201 reported a quarter ago. The adjusted EBITDA estimate in the segment is $54 million, down from $64 million.

The consensus mark for revenues from the Marine segment is $100 million, falling from $127 million recorded in the previous quarter. The adjusted EBITDA estimate in the segment is $14.17 million, marking a decline from $19.81 million.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Winnebago, here are a few players from the auto space, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat for the quarter to be reported:

Genuine Parts (GPC - Free Report) will release third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 20. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Genuine Parts’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.03 per share and $5.39 billion, respectively. GPC surpassed earnings estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 11.03%.

Oshkosh (OSK - Free Report) will release third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 27. The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.92% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oshkosh’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.17 per share and $2.15 billion, respectively. OSK surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the rest, with the average surprise being a negative 13.62%.

Lear (LEA - Free Report) will release third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +11.72% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.15 per share and $5.18 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 14.41%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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