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Will ExxonMobil's (XOM) Upstream Business Aid Q3 Earnings?

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 28, before the opening bell. Since the integrated energy player has significant exposure to upstream business, a considerable improvement in oil price is likely to have aided the quarterly performance.

Upstream Business

ExxonMobil’s upstream businesses fall under core operations. This segment covers the company’s activities related to exploring and developing oil and natural gas resources. From upstream operations within and outside the United States, the energy giant reported earnings of $11.1 billion, excluding identified items, in the second quarter of 2022.

Upstream Q2 Performance

Non-U.S. Operation: In second-quarter 2022, ExxonMobil reported earnings of $7.6 billion, excluding identified items, from upstream activities outside the United States. This marked an improvement from the year-earlier figure of $2.5 billion.

U.S Operation: From domestic operations, ExxonMobil reported a profit of $3.5 billion, skyrocketing from $663 million in a year-ago quarter.

Q3 Oil Price

Per data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the average West Texas Intermediate crude prices in July, August and September were recorded at $101.62 per barrel, $93.67 per barrel and $84.26 per barrel, respectively. In comparison, in the year-ago respective months, average oil prices were reported at $72.49 per barrel, $67.73 per barrel and $71.65 per barrel, per the EIA’s data.

Higher oil price was favorable for the exploration and production activities of ExxonMobil. Natural gas price was also healthier, thereby favoring its exploration and production businesses. These are likely to have aided the company’s third-quarter performance.

Forecast for Q3 Oil & Gas Production

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter production is pegged at 3,774 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoE/D), suggesting an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s 3,665 MBoE/D. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at 3,863.4 MBoE/D, also indicating a year-over-year increase.

Production of Crude & Natural Gas Liquids: The consensus estimate for worldwide net crude oil and liquids production is pegged at 2,377 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/D), indicating an improvement from 2,313 MBbl/D in the year-ago quarter.

Natural Gas Production: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for worldwide natural gas production available for sale is pegged at 8,413 million cubic feet per day (Mcf/d), implying a rise from 8,110 Mcf/d in third-quarter 2021.

Upstream Profit to Improve in Q3

Prices and the production of commodities are the two key parameters determining upstream operations' fate. With oil equivalent production likely to have surged, the significant improvement in oil price is expected to have acted as a catalyst. Thus, the Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) firm’s earnings from the upstream businesses are likely to have improved.

Earnings & Revenue Projections

The solid upstream business is likely to have aided ExxonMobil’s earnings in the September quarter of 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its third-quarter earnings of $3.88 per share suggests a significant improvement year over year. The same for sales of $115.2 billion indicates a 56.1% increase.

ExxonMobil has an Earnings ESP of +1.39%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms worth considering, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +20.22% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Viper Energy is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Nov 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VNOM’s earnings is pegged at 38 cents per share, suggesting an increase of almost 81% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Diamondback is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FANG’s earnings is pegged at $6.45 per share, suggesting a significant increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Enterprise Products is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s earnings is pegged at 61 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 17.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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