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American Airlines (AAL) Surges 9.7%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?

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American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) shares soared 9.7% in the last trading session to close at $16.83. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 14.9% gain over the past four weeks.

The uptick was due to the bullish guidance given by the management for the fourth quarter of 2022. With air-travel demand bouncing back very strongly from the pandemic lows, AAL expects fourth-quarter 2022 revenues to increase in the 16-17% range from fourth-quarter 2019 actuals. The earlier guidance hand hinted at an increase in the 11-13% range. Total revenue per available seat miles are now expected to increase roughly 24% in fourth-quarter 2022 from fourth-quarter 2019 actuals. The earlier guidance had called for a 18-20% increase. Driven by the upbeat air-travel demand, AAL  now expects fourth-quarter 2022 earnings in the $1.12-$1.17 per share band. The earlier guidance was in the 50-70 cents per share range. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at 60 cents.

This world's largest airline is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.60 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +142.3%. Revenues are expected to be $12.72 billion, up 35% from the year-ago quarter.

Earnings and revenue growth expectations certainly give a good sense of the potential strength in a stock, but empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.

For American Airlines, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 86.5% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. And a positive trend in earnings estimate revision usually translates into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on AAL going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

American Airlines is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, closed the last trading session 4% higher at $8.12. JBLU has returned 11.6% in the past month.

JetBlue's consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has changed -37.5% over the past month to $0.17. Compared to the company's year-ago EPS, this represents a change of +147.2%. JetBlue currently boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).


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