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NRG Energy and KB Home have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – January 18, 2023 – Zacks Equity Research shares NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG - Free Report) as the Bull of the Day and KB Home (KBH - Free Report) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , Lear (LEA - Free Report) and Harley-Davidson (HOG - Free Report) ).

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

NRG Energy, Inc. is a utility and energy giant that sits at a potentially attractive longer-term entry point.

NRG stock tumbled in early December after it announced a deal to buy Vivint Smart Home, as it aims to expand its reach for the age of smart homes and high-tech energy grids. NRG's long-term goal is to become a "leading provider of essential services for homes and businesses."

NRG Energy is also a worthy consideration for 2023 given its dividend yield and stable, essential business model as the market could easily favor energy and utility stocks again amid all the unknowns.  

Energy and Beyond

NRG is a utility powerhouse that generates electricity and provides energy solutions and natural gas to millions of business and residential customers. The Houston, Texas-based company is now poised to roll out more digital-focused efforts as electric grids, homes, and businesses grow more high-tech by the day.

NRG over the last year-plus explored how it could expand its reach to thrive in a world full of smart homes and connected energy grids. CEO Mauricio Gutierrez said on the company's Q3 earnings call in early November that NRG was growing increasingly focused on the rapid expansion of connected devices and appliances within the internet of things revolution.

NRG Energy decided it needed to capitalize on the growing smart home market and address a crucial drawback: too many different platforms and screens. "It is clear that a single interface for the home is of increasing importance and customer attitudes around these services are shifting from nice-to-have to need-to-have," Gutierrez said.

"Next, the electrification of the economy through smart technology and clean energy choices is real. We are seeing an increasing number of devices and appliances connected like HVAC, water heaters, battery, rooftop solar and other, in addition to having greater penetration of electric vehicles."

Roughly a month later, NRG announced a big splash to help it expand almost overnight into much more than a utility firm. NRG Energy said on December 6 that it agreed to buy Vivint Smart Home, Inc. for $12 per share or $2.8 billion in an all-cash deal. NRG Energy sees the Vivint purchase, which it paid a 33% premium for compared to its closing price prior to the deal, as a fantastic way to establish itself as a "leading provider of essential home services."

The deal is projected to close at some point in the first quarter of 2023. The newly beefed-up and diversified NRG will boast a network of approximately 7.4 million customers across North America. NRG will likely incorporate Vivint's backend tech ecosystem across the firm.

The beefed-up firm will be able to bundle offerings for utilities, home security, automation, and more, with more people than ever craving high-tech, centralized minimalism for their homes. NRG is preparing for a world where homes and businesses seamlessly manage and optimize energy storage, electric vehicle charging, and beyond.

Other Fundamentals

Wall Street showed its displeasure with NRG for seemingly stepping out of its lane to buy a smart home company with offerings that include security, lighting, and beyond. NRG sees the acquisition as helping it prepare for a totally connected future as it brings in a company and its tech that already lives inside people's homes.

NRG remains confident in its planned acquisition for many reasons. The deal creates more stable and predictable earnings for NRG as it boosts its business beyond fluctuating energy prices, given Vivint's subscription-based model and long customer history.

NRG's post-Vivint announcement selloff has it trading around 33% below its highs at roughly $32 per share. NRG is also trading at a 60% discount to its industry at 6.4X forward earnings and 50% below its own 10-year median.

The recent tumble has NRG shares neck-and-neck with its industry during the past five years, up 16%. Plus, NRG's Utility - Electric Power industry currently ranks in the top 30% of over 250 Zacks industries. NRG Energy's dividend currently yields 4.4% to crush its industry's 3.1%, with a very sustainable 23% payout ratio.

The company also plans to complete its $1 billion buyback program over the near term, of which $360 million was remaining as of November 30. NRG said it plans to use its excess free cash flow to fund the Vivint acquisition, as well as reduce acquisition-related debt, and maintain its common stock dividend growth policy in 2023. NRG then plans to return to its 50% return of capital / 50% growth capital allocation policy in 2024.

Bottom Line

Zacks estimates call for NRG's 2022 revenue to soar 20% to $32.34 billion to help lift its adjusted earnings by 45% to $11.12 per share. The top and bottom line strength is being driven, in part, by soaring energy and utility prices.

NRG is projected to see a rather significant pullback in 2023. Yet, its overall earnings outlook has trended largely upward for FY22 and FY23.

NRG's bottom-line positivity helps the stock land a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) right now, and it currently trades 19% below its average Zacks price target.

Overall, NRG offers investors value and dividends for what could be another turbulent 2023. Plus, NRG will soon be a much more diversified firm prepared to thrive in the world of connected smart homes and tech-centric energy grids. 

Bear of the Day:

KB Home fell short of both earnings and revenue estimates when it reported its fourth quarter fiscal 2022 financial results on January 11. The homebuilder also provided downbeat guidance for 2023 as the housing market continues to cool amid a multitude of headwinds outside of KB Home's control.

KB Home Overview

KB Home is one of the largest homebuilders in the U.S., with it currently operating in nearly 50 markets across the country, mostly in highly desirable areas within Colorado, Arizona, Texas, California, Nevada, Washington, and beyond. The company allows buyers to customize many aspects of their homes.

KBH is also committed to more energy-efficient offerings. In fact, the firm boasts that it is "the first builder to make every home we build ENERGY STAR certified."

The Los Angeles-based firm benefitted from the covid housing boom that was driven by ultra-low interest rates, demographic changes, and many other factors that favored KB Home and other home builders.

KB Home's revenue soared 37% in 2021 and another 21% in 2022. The firm delivered 2% more homes in 2022 (13,738), with its average selling price up 18% to $500K.

The housing market looks a lot different with the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage at around 6.4% at the moment vs. 2.7% in early 2021 and 3.5% in early 2022. KB Home said on January 11 that its ending backlog fell 25% YoY, with Q4 gross orders down 47%. Plus, its cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders was 68% vs. 13%.

KB Home attributed much of the downturn and "sharply lower demand" on "higher mortgage interest rates, inflation and other macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns." Zacks estimates call for KBH's 2023 revenue to fall 25% YoY to $5.2 billion to come in below its FY21 total of $5.7 billion.

KBH's adjusted earnings are projected to slide by 49% to $4.67 per share. And its bottom-line outlook could continue to trend in the wrong direction considering that its FY23 Zacks consensus EPS is down 30% in the last few months and around 25% since its Q4 release, with FY24's figure 35% lower than it was 60 days ago.

Bottom Line

KB Home's downward EPS revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) right now, with its most recent analyst estimate for FY24 coming in 8% worse than the current consensus. On top of that, KB Home's Building Products - Home Builders industry is in the bottom 8% of over 250 Zacks industries right now.

On the positive side, KB Home shares first began to sell off in May of 2021 and then again in early 2022 as interest rates really began to take off. This means that at least some of the downturn is already priced in.

Unfortunately, the stock rebounded rather significantly off its September lows and it's now near overbought RSI levels. KB Home's 1.7% dividend yield can be topped by many other stocks and ETFs with stronger near-term prospects. And the price chart shows us the rather wild ride KBH has been on over the past decade.

Additional content:

Is Tesla's (TSLA - Free Report) Earnings Beat Streak in Jeopardy?

Teslais set to post fourth-quarter 2022 results on Jan 25, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.13 per share and $24.84 billion, respectively.

Tesla surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last reported quarter on higher-than-expected revenues from Energy Generation/Storage and Services/Other segments. Over the trailing four quarters, Tesla beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, with the average being 26.4%. This is depicted in the graph below:

But will the company be able to maintain its beat streak this time around as well? While investors are keeping their fingers crossed, an earnings beat doesn't look too likely for Tesla this time around.

Estimate Revisions

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved south by a penny in the past seven days. The estimate for the bottom line, however, implies year-over-year growth of 32.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 40.2%.

Factors at Play

The company delivered 405,278 (388,131 Model 3 and Y, and 17,147 Model S and X) cars worldwide in the fourth quarter, up 31.5% from the year-ago quarter and 18.1% from the prior quarter. While the EV king hit record deliveries, it fell short of Wall Street expectations. Total deliveries also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 407,855 units amid logistics problems and demand cool off in the face of rising interest rates and recessionary fears.Also, COVID resurgence in China caused the company to temporarily suspend and reduce production at its Shanghai factory. 

In addition to the deliveries miss, Tesla offered steep discounts on its models in the United States, China and elsewhere to spur demand, which is likely to have limited automotive revenues to some extent. Further, high costs of raw materials and logistical constraints are likely to have put pressure on its margins.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total automotive cost of revenues is $16.4 billion, significantly higher than $11.08 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Overall, weaker-than-expected deliveries, COVID disruptions in China, commodity cost inflation and economic concerns are expected to adversely impact Tesla's upcoming results.

The consensus mark for Energy Generation and Storage revenues is pegged at $1,033 million, suggesting a decline from $1,117 million recorded in the previous reported quarter. The consensus estimate for revenues for Tesla's Services and Other segment is pegged at $1,523 million, implying a fall from $1,645 million recorded in the third quarter of 2022. 

What Does Our Model Say?

Our proven model doesn't conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of -3.95%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 4 cents lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks with a Favorable Combination

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Tesla, here are a couple of players from the auto space, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat for the quarter to be reported:

Lear will release fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 2. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.29% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear's to-be-reported quarter's earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.53 per share and $5.26 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 18%.

Harley-Davidson is expected to report fourth-quarter 2022 results by mid-February. The company has an Earnings ESP of +300.00% and a Zacks Rank #1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Harley-Davidson's to-be-reported quarter's earnings and revenues is pegged at 3 cents per share and $880.5 million, respectively. HOG surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 43.3%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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