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The Fourth of July in 2023: A Celebration of Economic Resilience
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As the United States is going to celebrate Independence Day on the Fourth of July in 2023, the celebrations should not only be marked by fireworks and barbecues but also by an easing of inflation, ebbing recessionary fears and resilient consumers.
Best Economic Developments Before July 4
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index advanced 3.8% in May versus April's 4.3%, and excluding volatile food and energy. The core PCE index gained 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the previous month. The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in the first quarter of 2023, way higher than 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecast of 1.4%, per tradingecnomics. Consumers’ personal savings rate was 4.6% in May 2023, up from 4.3% in April 2023.
How Consumers Plan to Celebrating Independence Day in 2023
The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that 87% of Americans plan to celebrate the holiday, the highest number since before the coronavirus pandemic. About 32% of those participating in celebrations intend to buy more patriotic merchandise.
The pattern of celebration across all categories has either risen or stayed consistent with the pre-pandemic levels. According to NRF, there's an increase in those planning to partake in cookouts or picnics, with 65% planning to do so (61% was reported in 2019), spending an average of $93.34 on food per person. Overall grocery prices are up 5.8% from a year ago, but the pace of inflation has slowed considerably.
The proportion of people intending to enjoy fireworks or community events remains steady at 40%, matching the 2019 rate. There's a rise in the number of people planning to vacation, standing at about 14%. Roughly 13% of celebrants are planning to attend a parade, showing a slight increase from 11% in 2019.
How to Profit From This Celebration?
Certain sectors and industries that can see increased activity around the 4th of July holiday are discussed below.
Consumer Discretionary Sector
Companies, which are selling items popular for the 4th of July celebrations, such as barbecue grills, outdoor furniture and American flag-themed items, may see increased sales. This can benefit big box stores like Walmart (WMT - Free Report) and Target (TGT - Free Report) or home improvement companies like Home Depot (HD - Free Report) and Lowe's (LOW - Free Report) .
Consumer Staples Sector
Companies that sell popular picnic and barbecue foods should also see a boost. This may include companies like Tyson Foods (TSN - Free Report) , Kraft Heinz (KHC - Free Report) , Constellation Brands (STZ - Free Report) and Diageo plc (DEO - Free Report) .
Travel and Leisure Sector
With many people taking trips for the 4th of July weekend, travel-related companies (hotels, airlines, online travel agencies) have the potential to benefit. The American Automobile Association projected that 50.7 million Americans planned to travel 50 miles or more from home during the holiday weekend.
This suggests an increase of 2.1 million people from that reported in 2022 and tops the previous record set in 2019. This increase in travel was facilitated by significantly lower gas prices. Some examples are Booking HoldingsBKNG, Marriott International (MAR - Free Report) and Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) .
Entertainment Sector
Amusement parks, movie theaters and other entertainment venues should also witness increased traffic on this event. Companies like Disney (DIS - Free Report) and Six Flags (SIX - Free Report) are likely to do solid business.
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The Fourth of July in 2023: A Celebration of Economic Resilience
As the United States is going to celebrate Independence Day on the Fourth of July in 2023, the celebrations should not only be marked by fireworks and barbecues but also by an easing of inflation, ebbing recessionary fears and resilient consumers.
Best Economic Developments Before July 4
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index advanced 3.8% in May versus April's 4.3%, and excluding volatile food and energy. The core PCE index gained 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the previous month. The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in the first quarter of 2023, way higher than 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecast of 1.4%, per tradingecnomics. Consumers’ personal savings rate was 4.6% in May 2023, up from 4.3% in April 2023.
How Consumers Plan to Celebrating Independence Day in 2023
The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that 87% of Americans plan to celebrate the holiday, the highest number since before the coronavirus pandemic. About 32% of those participating in celebrations intend to buy more patriotic merchandise.
The pattern of celebration across all categories has either risen or stayed consistent with the pre-pandemic levels. According to NRF, there's an increase in those planning to partake in cookouts or picnics, with 65% planning to do so (61% was reported in 2019), spending an average of $93.34 on food per person. Overall grocery prices are up 5.8% from a year ago, but the pace of inflation has slowed considerably.
The proportion of people intending to enjoy fireworks or community events remains steady at 40%, matching the 2019 rate. There's a rise in the number of people planning to vacation, standing at about 14%. Roughly 13% of celebrants are planning to attend a parade, showing a slight increase from 11% in 2019.
How to Profit From This Celebration?
Certain sectors and industries that can see increased activity around the 4th of July holiday are discussed below.
Consumer Discretionary Sector
Companies, which are selling items popular for the 4th of July celebrations, such as barbecue grills, outdoor furniture and American flag-themed items, may see increased sales. This can benefit big box stores like Walmart (WMT - Free Report) and Target (TGT - Free Report) or home improvement companies like Home Depot (HD - Free Report) and Lowe's (LOW - Free Report) .
Consumer Staples Sector
Companies that sell popular picnic and barbecue foods should also see a boost. This may include companies like Tyson Foods (TSN - Free Report) , Kraft Heinz (KHC - Free Report) , Constellation Brands (STZ - Free Report) and Diageo plc (DEO - Free Report) .
Travel and Leisure Sector
With many people taking trips for the 4th of July weekend, travel-related companies (hotels, airlines, online travel agencies) have the potential to benefit. The American Automobile Association projected that 50.7 million Americans planned to travel 50 miles or more from home during the holiday weekend.
This suggests an increase of 2.1 million people from that reported in 2022 and tops the previous record set in 2019. This increase in travel was facilitated by significantly lower gas prices. Some examples are Booking Holdings BKNG, Marriott International (MAR - Free Report) and Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) .
Entertainment Sector
Amusement parks, movie theaters and other entertainment venues should also witness increased traffic on this event. Companies like Disney (DIS - Free Report) and Six Flags (SIX - Free Report) are likely to do solid business.