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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Sep 13. In the last reported quarter, CBRL reported a negative earnings surprise of 9%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.68, indicating growth of 7% from $1.57 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $842.6 million. The projection suggests an increase of 1.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

 

Let’s check out the factors likely to have influenced CBRL’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Cracker Barrel's fiscal fourth-quarter topline will likely benefit from its off-premise business model, Catering business and menu innovations (comprising of new flavor profiles). This and the emphasis on pricing strategy, loyalty program development (featuring retail and fun gaming elements) and new store openings will likely have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The company expects fourth-quarter revenues to grow 1-3% on a year-over-year basis.

Per our model, restaurant and retail sales (including MSBC) are expected to rise 1.9% and 3.4% year over year to $674.2 million and $174.2 million, respectively.

Emphasis on business optimizations (via fine-tuning labor model) and technological investments will likely have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. Our model predicts the fiscal fourth quarter adjusted operating margin at 5%.

Softer restaurant traffic and reductions in retail purchases (driven by macroeconomic pressures) will likely impact the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, the company anticipates commodity inflation to be flat (with continued inflationary pressures in categories such as produce, eggs, dairy, and grains) and wage inflation to be approximately 5% year over year.

For fourth-quarter fiscal 2023, our model predicts the cost of goods sold to rise 0.8% year over year to $275.6 million. Also, we expect adjusted store operating expenses to increase 1.1% year over year to $769.4 million.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of -4.88%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Peer Releases

Restaurant Brands International, Inc. (QSR - Free Report) reported impressive second-quarter 2023 results, with earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis. The upside was primarily driven by strong global comparable sales, unit growth and a healthy balance of traffic and check.

During the quarter, QSR reported adjusted EPS of 85 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 76 cents. The bottom line increased 3.7% from an adjusted EPS of 82 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. Quarterly net revenues of $1,775 million surpassed the consensus mark of $1,746 million. The top line increased 8.3% on a year-over-year basis. The upside was driven by a rise in system-wide sales at Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs. However, this was partially offset by unfavorable FX movements.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) reported mixed second-quarter fiscal 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The bottom and the top lines increased year over year. An increase in comparable restaurant sales backed by improving consumer demand and new restaurant openings drove the company’s performance.

During the quarter, CAKE reported adjusted EPS of 88 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 81 cents by 8.6%. The reported figure suggested a 69.2% year-over-year increase. Total revenues of $866.2 million missed the consensus estimate of $881 million by 1.7%. However, the top line increased by 4% on a year-over-year basis.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) released mixed second-quarter fiscal 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis.

During the quarter, Chipotle reported adjusted EPS of $12.65, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.25. The bottom line increased 36% from the $9.30 reported in the year-ago quarter. Quarterly revenues of $2,514.8 million missed the consensus mark of $2,524 million. The top line increased 13.6% on a year-over-year basis. The upside can primarily be attributed to strong comparable restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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