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ACM Research and Advance Auto Parts have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 2, 2023 – Zacks Equity Research shares ACM Research (ACMR - Free Report) as the Bull of the Day and Advance Auto Parts (AAP - Free Report) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) , Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) .

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks.

Bull of the Day:

ACM Research, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), develops cleaning equipment that assists semiconductor companies in removing particles, contaminants, and other random defects during the manufacturing process. ACMR shares are widely outperforming the market this year with the backing of a leading industry group. The stock is hitting a series of 52-week highs and displaying relative strength as buying pressure accumulates in this market leader.

The technology company is part of the Zacks Semiconductor Equipment – Material Services industry group, which ranks in the top 1% out of more than 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. Because it is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect this group to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months. This industry has been steadily outperforming the market in 2023:

Historical research studies suggest that approximately half of a stock’s price appreciation is due to its industry grouping. In fact, the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. It’s no secret that investing in stocks that are part of leading industry groups can give us a leg up relative to the market. By focusing on leading stocks within the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries, we can dramatically improve our stock-picking success.

Company Description

ACM Research produces and sells single-wafer wet cleaning equipment for enhancing the manufacturing process and yield of integrated semiconductor chips. Its technology delivers megasonic energy at a microscopic level, providing cleaning for 2D and 3D patterned wavers.

The company’s cleaning process uses less sulfuric acid and hydrogen peroxide, providing more efficient performance for advanced metal plating. ACM Research sells its products under the Ultra C brand name through direct sales forces and third-party representatives.

Earnings Trends and Future Estimates

ACMR has built up an impressive earnings history, surpassing earnings estimates in each of the last eight quarters. Back in August, the Fremont, California-based company reported second-quarter earnings of $0.48/share, a staggering 380% surprise over the $0.10/share consensus estimate. Earnings grew 118% year-over-year, while revenues of $144.58 million improved 38.5% from the year-ago quarter. ACMR has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 210.26%.

Analysts covering ACMR are in agreement and have been increasing their earnings estimates as of late. For the current fiscal year, analysts have increased earnings estimates by 36.26% in the past 60 days. The 2023 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate now stands at $1.24/share, reflecting potential growth of 49.4% relative to the prior year. Revenues are projected to surge 44.39% to $561.4 million.

Let’s Get Technical

ACMR shares have advanced nearly 135% this year. This is the kind of stock we want to include in our portfolio – one that is trending well and receiving positive earnings estimate revisions.

The stock has been making a series of higher highs. With both strong fundamentals and technicals, ACMR is poised to continue its outperformance.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. As we know, ACM Research has recently witnessed positive revisions. As long as this trend remains intact (and ACMR continues to deliver earnings beats), the stock will likely continue its bullish run this year.

Bottom Line

The future looks bright for this highly-ranked, leading stock. Momentum has picked up in recent months, even as the general market experienced a pullback.  

Backed by a leading industry group and impressive history of earnings beats, it’s not difficult to see why this company is a compelling investment. Robust fundamentals combined with an appealing technical trend certainly justify adding shares to the mix.

Bear of the Day:

Advance Auto Parts provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, utility vehicles, and trucks. The company offers a variety of products such as brakes and brake pads, engines and related parts, antifreeze and washer fluids, wiper blades, and tire repair accessories.

Furthermore, Advance Auto Parts provides services such as battery installation, electrical system testing, and engine light scanning. The company serves do-it-yourself customers and professional installers through its website as well as retail stores in the United States, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Canada, and throughout the Caribbean.  

The Zacks Rundown

Advance Auto Parts, a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a component of the Zacks Automotive – Retail and Wholesale – Parts industry group, which ranks in the bottom 12% out of more than 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has over the course of the year.

Candidates in the bottom tiers of industries can often be solid potential short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when included in a poorly-performing industry group, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.

Despite the underperformance this year, stocks in this group remain relatively overvalued.

As a part of this group, AAP stock has experienced considerable volatility in 2023. Shares recently hit a 52-week low following a disappointing earnings report and represent a compelling short or hedge opportunity.

Recent Earnings Misses and Deteriorating Outlook

AAP has fallen short of earnings estimates in three of the last three quarters. The auto parts company most recently reported second-quarter earnings back in August of $1.43/share, missing the $1.72/share consensus EPS estimate by 16.86%. Earnings plunged 61.8% from the same quarter in the prior year.

Advance Auto Parts has missed earnings estimates by an average of 21.03% over the past four quarters. Consistently falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and AAP is no exception.

The company has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. For the current quarter, analysts have decreased estimates by 28.36% in the past 60 days. The third-quarter Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate now stands at $1.44/share, translating to negative growth of -49.3% relative to the same quarter last year.

Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.

Technical Outlook

AAP stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how shares have plunged below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages signaled by the blue and red lines, respectively. The stock is making a series of lower lows, with no respite from the selling in sight. Also note how both moving averages have rolled over and are sloping down – another good sign for the bears.

While not the most accurate indicator, AAP stock has also experienced what is known as a ‘death cross’, wherein the stock’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. Advance Auto Parts would have to make a serious move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions in the stock. AAP shares have fallen more than 64% in the past year alone. 

Final Thoughts

A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to go into overdrive anytime soon. The fact that AAP stock is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups provides yet another headwind to a long list of concerns. A history of earnings misses will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.

Shares continue to experience substantial volatility and have widely underperformed this year. With negative earnings estimate revisions continuing to pile up, this stock should be avoided as there are plenty of better alternatives in the current market environment.

Additional content:

3 Stocks to Focus on as Demand for Obesity Drugs Booms

The market for obesity and weight management drugs is attracting a lot of interest lately in the United States. Patients are gradually understanding the benefits of obesity drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) — already approved for diabetes — could be the second drug for treating obesity, if it is approved for the indication by the FDA this year.

The obesity drugs are designed in such a way that they suppress appetite so you eat less and eventually lose weight.

According to the World Health Organization, over one billion people worldwide are obese. Obese people have a body mass index (BMI) above 30 while a BMI between 25 and 30 is considered overweight. Obesity has become a global health problem as it can cause other diseases like heart disease, diabetes and stroke. This resulted in an exponential increase in demand for these obesity medicines. Also, social media has somewhat hyped the benefits of these medications.

According to a Morgan Stanley report, the market for obesity drugs could reach $77 billion by 2030. Though supply issues may affect sales growth of these drugs in the near term, with the obesity market gaining popularity, analysts are expecting sales to increase. Pharma companies are rushing to enter the market

Here, we discuss three large drugmakers expected to gain the largest share of this fiercely growing market.

Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk’s popular GLP-1 receptor agonist, Wegovy (semaglutide – 2.5 mg), is an anti-obesity injection. Wegovy is seeing strong prescription trends and is generating impressive revenues and profits for Novo Nordisk. In clinical studies, patients taking Wegovy have experienced an average loss of 15% of their body weight over a 68-week period. Wegovy sales were up 363% at a constant exchange rate (“CER”) in the first half of 2023.

In August, Novo Nordisk reported positive data from the phase III SELECT study, which evaluated Wegovy (semaglutide 2.4 mg) as an adjunctive treatment for preventing cardiovascular (“CV”) diseases in adults with overweight or obesity. Data from the study showed that Wegovy reduced the risk of major adverse CV events by 20%. Obesity is one of the major risk factors responsible for CV diseases. A weight-loss drug like Wegovy, which also has CV benefits, is expected to see increase in sales and demand.

In addition, the CV benefit could probably make Wegovy eligible for insurance coverage. Currently, obesity drugs like Wegovy are considered lifestyle drugs and not eligible for coverage under Medicare health plans.

Novo Nordisk is also evaluating a once-daily oral formulation of semaglutide for obesity indication in late-stage studies, with a potential FDA filing expected later this year. Novo Nordisk is also developing PYY 1875 for weight management in phase II studies.

In August, Novo Nordisk also announced plans to acquire Canada’s private company Inversago Pharma, which makes CB1 receptor blocker therapies for obesity, diabetes and other serious metabolic diseases. CB1 is a cannabinoid receptor that plays an important role in appetite regulation and other cardiometabolic pathways. Inversago Pharma’s lead pipeline candidate, INV-202, an oral CB1 inverse agonist, demonstrated weight loss potential in an early-stage study.

Eli Lilly

Lilly reported strong data from obesity studies of its new drug Mounjaro (tirzepatide), a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist. Mounjaro is already approved for type II diabetes and is generating impressive sales. Mounjaro sales totaled $1.55 billion in the first half of 2023.

Mounjaro showed a superior weight-loss reduction in clinical studies for the obesity indication. Regulatory applications have already been filed for Mounjaro for the obesity indication in the United States and EU. In the United States, the FDA has assigned priority review to the regulatory filing, with a decision expected by year-end.

In addition, Lilly’s pipeline also includes retatrutide (GGG tri-agonist) and orforglipron, which are being developed, in late-stage studies, for type II diabetes and obesity.

In August, Lilly acquired private biotech Versanis, which is expected to strengthen its position in the obesity market. Versanis’ lead pipeline candidate is bimagrumab, a monoclonal antibody being developed in a phase IIb study alone and in combination with semaglutide in adults who are overweight or obese. Bimagrumab has the potential to show better quality weight loss by reducing fat mass while preserving muscle mass in people who are obese or have obesity-related complications.

Pfizer

Pfizer also has candidates for obesity in its pipeline even though it is behind competition. Pfizer is currently evaluating its oral, small molecule GLP-1-RA candidate danuglipron in a phase II study in patients with obesity and type II diabetes. Data from the phase II study is expected by the end of the year. If this study is successful, it will enable Pfizer to finalize the phase III plan.

While Pfizer and Eli Lilly sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Novo Nordisk has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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