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Will Alibaba Group (BABA) Beat Earnings Estimates in Q1?

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We expect Alibaba Group (BABA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2017 results on Aug 11.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Alibaba Group is likely to beat on earnings because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, stands at +28.95%. This is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise.

Zacks Rank: Alibaba Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or #5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement. 

The combination of Alibaba Group’s Zacks Rank #3 and +28.95% ESP makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

The Chinese eCommerce company, which operates as a platform for third-party sellers, neither sells goods directly to merchants nor holds inventory. Alibaba Group’s strong market position in China, uninterrupted growth in mobile business, unfazed improvement in commerce retail business and improving gross merchandise value (GMV) should boost fiscal first-quarter earnings.

Additionally, Alibaba is witnessing increasing monetization rates. The company, which focuses not only on foreign brands but also other high-profile merchants on its platforms, is building up its online marketing inventory on both mobile and PC. As a result of a higher monetization rate, its profits, too, are going up.

Some of the current buoyancy surrounding the shares of Alibaba owes its excitement to the Chinese eCommerce goliath’s dominance in the mobile search market and matching product development efforts.

ALIBABA GROUP Price and EPS Surprise

Other Stocks to Consider

Alibaba Group is not the only firm looking up this earnings season. We also see likely earnings beats coming from these companies:

Alamos Gold, Inc. (AGI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100.0% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to report second-quarter 2016 earnings results on Aug 10, 2016.

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2016 earnings results on Aug 17, 2016.

Synopsys Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +6.90% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to report second-quarter 2016 earnings results on Aug 30, 2016.

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