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Of Groundhogs, Earnings and Jobless Claims

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Thursday, February 2, 2017

So Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s most famous groundhog, has emerged from his hole and seen his shadow this morning, indicating 6 more weeks of winter. A quick glance at the calendar would show that mid-March is indeed times for winter to subside — to say nothing of all the spotlights cast upon the poor rodent this morning: how can Phil NOT see his shadow?

Setting aside whatever importance this annual event might hold in the hearts and minds of individuals, there is some data out this morning serious market participants are paying close attention to: Initial Jobless Claims and continuing Q4 earnings results. We also see numbers out after the bell today from Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock with Zacks Style Score of C, which is expected to make $1.40 per share for its Q4 earnings.

Initial Jobless Claims

The new print for the weekly jobless claims numbers fell 14K to 246K, again below the historically low and psychologically satisfying 250K level. Continuing claims also fell, though not as drastically: 2.10 million from the previous week went down to 2.064 million. Both reads indicate continued strength in the U.S. labor force.

Tomorrow’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) non-farm payroll report will be released before the bell, following yesterday’s extraordinary 246K new private sector jobs gains, according to payroll giant ADP (ADP - Free Report) . Expectations from the BLS report are much lower — roughly 174K or so — but still within the narrative of strength in U.S. labor. We don’t anticipate a lower number — it will more likely be above the current consensus, if the ADP report is to be believed — although many analysts expect to see the unemployment rate steady at 4.7%.

Q4 Earnings

Ahead of the bell today, CME Group (CME - Free Report) performed decently on the bottom line while beating top-line estimates with $913 million in total quarterly sales. This represents 12% revenue growth year over year. The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company had a Zacks Style Score of F ahead of the report; we will look for analyst adjustments going forward.

International Paper (IP - Free Report) posted a 3-cent beat for its Q4 earnings totals: 73 cents per share from the 70 cents expected. This is still down double-digits from year-ago results. IP is also a Zacks Rank #2, but with a Style Score of B.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

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