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Biogen (BIIB) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Biogen Inc. (BIIB - Free Report) will report second-quarter 2018results on Jul 24, before market open. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 2.02%.
Biogen’s shares have risen 12.5% this year against the industry’s decline of 2.3% in the same time frame.
Biogen’s earnings performance has been decent so far. The company delivered a positive surprise in three of the last four quarters. The average earnings beat over the last four quarters is 6.25%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement
Factors to Consider
In the first quarter of 2018, performance of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs was soft due to rising competitive pressure from Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) newly launched MS drug, Ocrevus. We expect these factors to continue to hurt sales of the MS franchise in the second quarter. However, a couple of other factors that hurt MS sales in the first quarter — seasonality and a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown in the United States — are not expected to have any negative impact on second-quarter sales. International MS sales should remain strong in the second quarter supported by patient growth across major European markets and strong emerging market growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Tecfidera in the second quarter is pegged at $1.10 billion while that for Tysabri (Global In-Market sales) is $448 million.
Meanwhile, the combined number of patients using Avonex and Plegridy will continue to decline with patients transitioning to other oral MS therapies as well as due to higher discounts and allowance.
Zinbryta will not add any significant revenues in the quarter. In March, Biogen and partner AbbVie announced the decision to withdraw Zinbryta from the markets due to growing safety concerns and limited commercial adoption of the drug due to its restrictive label.
Biogen’s new drug, Spinraza, approved for spinal muscular atrophy, saw strong sales in international markets, while sales in United States moderated in the first quarter. On the first-quarter call, management had said that growth in Spinraza U.S sales will be flat for at least the next two quarters, given the continued transition of patients from the loading phase to the less intensive maintenance phase (dosing only once in 4 months). We expect Spinraza sales to be driven by ex-U.S. markets in the second quarter.
On the first-quarter call, management had highlighted that overall patient numbers for Spinraza grew in the quarter - a trend we expect to continue.
Biogen’s biosimilar products — Flixabi (a biosimilar referencing Remicade) and Benepali (a biosimilar referencing Enbrel) — are also generating higher revenues. The trend should continue this quarter as well.
Lower-than-expected costs and lower tax rates benefited profits in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if the trend continues this quarter.
Earlier this month, Biogen announced data from a phase II study on its Alzheimer’s disease (AD) candidate BAN2401, which is a humanized beta amyloid antibody it is developing in collaboration with Japan’s Eisai. Data from the study showed that BAN2401 led to statistically significant slowdown in disease progression and reduction of amyloid beta accumulation in the brain. The positive study data on an otherwise challenging therapeutic area took the investor community by a storm. Numerous questions on the candidate’s progress plans are expected on the second-quarter call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Biogen is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -4.35% as the Most Accurate estimate stands at $5.03 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at $5.26. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release results on Jul 27.
Today's Stocks from Zacks' Hottest Strategies
It's hard to believe, even for us at Zacks. But while the market gained +21.9% in 2017, our top stock-picking screens have returned +115.0%, +109.3%, +104.9%, +98.6%, and +67.1%.
And this outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. Over the years it has been remarkably consistent. From 2000 - 2017, the composite yearly average gain for these strategies has beaten the market more than 19X over. Maybe even more remarkable is the fact that we're willing to share their latest stocks with you without cost or obligation.
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Biogen (BIIB) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Biogen Inc. (BIIB - Free Report) will report second-quarter 2018results on Jul 24, before market open. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 2.02%.
Biogen’s shares have risen 12.5% this year against the industry’s decline of 2.3% in the same time frame.
Biogen’s earnings performance has been decent so far. The company delivered a positive surprise in three of the last four quarters. The average earnings beat over the last four quarters is 6.25%.
Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Biogen Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement
Factors to Consider
In the first quarter of 2018, performance of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs was soft due to rising competitive pressure from Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) newly launched MS drug, Ocrevus. We expect these factors to continue to hurt sales of the MS franchise in the second quarter. However, a couple of other factors that hurt MS sales in the first quarter — seasonality and a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown in the United States — are not expected to have any negative impact on second-quarter sales. International MS sales should remain strong in the second quarter supported by patient growth across major European markets and strong emerging market growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Tecfidera in the second quarter is pegged at $1.10 billion while that for Tysabri (Global In-Market sales) is $448 million.
Meanwhile, the combined number of patients using Avonex and Plegridy will continue to decline with patients transitioning to other oral MS therapies as well as due to higher discounts and allowance.
Zinbryta will not add any significant revenues in the quarter. In March, Biogen and partner AbbVie announced the decision to withdraw Zinbryta from the markets due to growing safety concerns and limited commercial adoption of the drug due to its restrictive label.
Biogen’s new drug, Spinraza, approved for spinal muscular atrophy, saw strong sales in international markets, while sales in United States moderated in the first quarter. On the first-quarter call, management had said that growth in Spinraza U.S sales will be flat for at least the next two quarters, given the continued transition of patients from the loading phase to the less intensive maintenance phase (dosing only once in 4 months). We expect Spinraza sales to be driven by ex-U.S. markets in the second quarter.
On the first-quarter call, management had highlighted that overall patient numbers for Spinraza grew in the quarter - a trend we expect to continue.
Biogen’s biosimilar products — Flixabi (a biosimilar referencing Remicade) and Benepali (a biosimilar referencing Enbrel) — are also generating higher revenues. The trend should continue this quarter as well.
Lower-than-expected costs and lower tax rates benefited profits in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if the trend continues this quarter.
Earlier this month, Biogen announced data from a phase II study on its Alzheimer’s disease (AD) candidate BAN2401, which is a humanized beta amyloid antibody it is developing in collaboration with Japan’s Eisai. Data from the study showed that BAN2401 led to statistically significant slowdown in disease progression and reduction of amyloid beta accumulation in the brain. The positive study data on an otherwise challenging therapeutic area took the investor community by a storm. Numerous questions on the candidate’s progress plans are expected on the second-quarter call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Biogen is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -4.35% as the Most Accurate estimate stands at $5.03 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at $5.26. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +0.91% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Jul 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release results on Jul 27.
Today's Stocks from Zacks' Hottest Strategies
It's hard to believe, even for us at Zacks. But while the market gained +21.9% in 2017, our top stock-picking screens have returned +115.0%, +109.3%, +104.9%, +98.6%, and +67.1%.
And this outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. Over the years it has been remarkably consistent. From 2000 - 2017, the composite yearly average gain for these strategies has beaten the market more than 19X over. Maybe even more remarkable is the fact that we're willing to share their latest stocks with you without cost or obligation.
See Them Free>>