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Viacom (VIAB) to Post Q1 Earnings: Disappointment in Store?

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Viacom is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Feb 5.

Notably, Viacom beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the average positive earnings surprise being 9.5%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of 99 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4 cents and increased 29% year over year.

Viacom’s revenues beat the consensus mark in two of the trailing four quarters. In the last reported quarter, revenues of $3.49 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.34 billion and increased 5% year over year.

However, projections for first-quarter fiscal 2019 are unimpressive. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has remained unchanged at $1.02 over the past seven days and indicates a year-over-year decrease of roughly 1%. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.10 billion, indicating year-over-year increase of 0.9%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Can Bumblebee Aid Paramount’s Growth in Q1?

The turnaround of Paramount with its continued box office success is benefiting Viacom. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2018, Theatrical revenues surged 193% to $337 million, owing to robust box office collections of Mission: Impossible – Fallout.

However, Theatrical revenues are expected to be negatively impacted by a weak slate of movie releases in the to-be-reported quarter. Per Box Office Mojo, Mission: Impossible – Fallout was available in theaters for the first two weeks of October.

Much anticipated Bumblebee was released toward the end of the quarter (Dec 21, 2018 in the U.S) and will contribute revenues of only two weeks. Although the latest movie from the Transformer franchise received better appreciation than the previous ones, it faced significant competition from Warner Brothers’ Aquaman and Sony’s Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse.

Viacom Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Viacom Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Viacom Inc. Quote

 

Media Networks

In first-quarter fiscal 2019, Viacom announced the new structure of its Media Networks. The segment now has four brand groups — (1) Paramount Network, TV Land and Comedy Central, (2) MTV, VH1, CMT and Logo, (3) BET Networks and (4) Nickelodeon.

Increasing investments in original content and focus on providing quality entertainment are driving audience growth for Viacom’s flagship brands like MTV, BET and Comedy Central. The company had the top share of basic U.S. cable viewing among key demographics in the last reported quarter.

MTV’s resurgence has been a key catalyst in this regard. The brand is expanding its footprint beyond cable television. The acquisition of SnowGlobe Music Festival strengthens MTV’s global live events business.

Moreover, MTV Studios sold MTV’s The Real World to Facebook’s Watch for three seasons. Additionally, BET Networks acquired eight-part drama Carl Weber’s The Family Business starring acclaimed-actor and executive producer, Ernie Hudson.

Further, Nickelodeon entered into an exclusive first-look deal with comedian, actor and television personality Kevin Hart (Night School, Jumanji, The Secret Life of Pets) and his production entity, HartBeat Productions in the last reported quarter.

Nickelodeon also collaborated with Walmart (WMT - Free Report) to present Nickelodeon Toy Run: Family Style in Walmart stores across the country from Oct 18 to Nov 4.

Meanwhile, Viacom’s subdivision, Paramount Players acquired the feature film rights to CREEPY CRAWLERS, the toy brand owned by JAKKS Pacific.

Additionally, Viacom International Studios (VIS) has gained significant traction within a short span of time, courtesy of partnerships with Amazon, Cablevision, Fox Network Group Latin America, Netflix and Telemundo. Through VIS, Viacom has become a leading global producer of original Spanish-language content, with more than 700 hours delivered in fiscal 2018.

However, domestic ad revenues are likely to remain subdued in the to-be-reported quarter. Moreover, investments in Advanced Marketing Solutions (AMS), digital, next-generation products and studio initiatives are expected to negatively impact margins. Moreover, unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations are expected to hurt top-line growth.

What Our Model Says

According to the Zacks model, a company with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) along with a positive Earnings ESP has a good chance of beating estimates. The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) are best avoided.

Viacom has a Zacks Rank #4 and an Earnings ESP of -0.14%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

A Stock That Warrants a Look

Here is a stock you may want to consider as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat in the to-be-reported quarter.

Twitter has an Earnings ESP of +13.03% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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