Friday, November 14, 2025

Pre-markets are down again in early trading today, now down for the week — just a day and a half from the blue-chip Dow setting a new all-time closing high. A plurality of Fed members have by now spoken up this week doubting that 25 basis-point (bps) cuts will continue indefinitely, mostly because there is almost no visibility on economic metrics with a six-week government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history.

Today was supposed to bring us October Retail Sales, which were predicted to have turned negative for the first time in four months, following gains of +1.0%, +0.6% and +0.6% sequentially. Also, the Producer Price Index (PPI) — the wholesale side of inflation — was estimated to grow +0.3% for the month, from -0.1% reported at its most recent release, for August. Year over year PPI was +2.6% in August, down from +3.1% in July. Will we see this downtrend continue"

If we do — and especially if we see continued weakness in the labor market (eventually) — then we can expect 25 bps interest rate cuts to continue. We did get an alternate print on Weekly Jobless Claims this morning, with Initial Claims unchanged week over week to 228K and Continuing Claims coming down -18K to 1.95 million. None of this data seems to be capturing the uncommonly high number of layoffs reported over the past couple weeks, so we won’t bet the farm on this data just yet.

All told, the Dow is -345 points at this hour, -0.73%, while the S&P 500 is -75, -1.12%. The Nasdaq continues to fare the worst — the dark clouds over possibly excessive AI spending have not yet parted — -394 points, -1.57%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is -32, -1.37%. At this stage, we’re on pace for the worst November of trading since 2008.
 

Earnings Results Ahead of the Bell: MUFG, SMFG

Two Japanese finance majors reported fiscal Q2 results this morning. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated Mitsubishi UFJ MUFG beat on earnings by a solid dime: 44 cents per ADR versus expectations for 34 cents, for a +1.3% positive surprise. Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)-rated Sumimoto SMFG did one better, reporting 59 cents per ADR versus 40 cents anticipated, for a positive surprise of +47.5%. Both stocks are up in early trading on the news.
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

The Business Inventories report expected later this afternoon" Forget it. We will hear from a couple more Fed members today on the state of the economy — Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan — but unless these officials pull a 180 and suddenly support more rate cuts, expect more discussion regarding why it may be wiser to keep rates steady at their current +3.75-4.00%. Both have said they were against the cut in October, even though neither were voting members.

Those rooting for more rate cuts may think they only have a half-year or so of wallowing through Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure, including his continued reiteration that Fed policy is still keeping a +2% inflation rate as a target. This notion will evaporate upon a new Fed Chair taking the mantle, in May 2026, but as we can see above, he (or she) would experience lots of resistance from its current members.

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Key Earnings Reports For Nov 15, 2025