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Stock market activity was mostly flat today on the major indexes, with only the blue-chip Dow shedding -398 points, or -0.80%. It and the S&P 500 pulled back from all-time highs posted yesterday, partly on a -4% day for JPMorgan JPM, which could not rescue itself today with better-than-expected results in Q4 earnings and revenues. The S&P 500 finished the session -13 points, -0.19%, although Moderna’sMRNA approval of its Covid-flu hybrid vax sent shares up +17% today.
The Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 were both down -0.1% on the day, booking some profits as Q4 earnings season starts to get rolling. Intel INTC performed well today, closing above +7% (it had trade up +10% earlier in the session) on continued hyperscaler demand and an upgrade to Overweight from KeyBanc. AMDAMD was another big winner today for much the same reason: the AI trade is alive and well, though perhaps in less of a scatter-shot fashion. Other AI plays were mixed today.
Economic Prints for New Home Sales, Budget Deficit
Whereas we saw better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ahead of today’s opening bell, we similarly saw improvements in other economic metrics as the day moved along. New Home Sales for October gained by more than expected — 737K seasonally adjusted, annualized units versus 710K projected and 738K a month ago — spoke to some traction in the housing market, which has been looking for it for some time. That said, this is old data, delayed by the weeks-long government shutdown.
The U.S. Budget Deficit for December slid notably from the previous report, but at -$144.7 billion it’s still an improvement from the anticipated -$150 billion. It’s the third-straight month of deficits shrinking, with last year’s low hitting a near-term low -$345K. For 2025, the deficit kept to the median rate over the last five years. Depending on what the Supreme Court decides to do regarding the White House’s tariff policy, this may be one area that sees notable improvement this year.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow
Q4 earnings for the big banks continue, with CitigroupC, Bank of AmericaBAC and Wells FargoWFC all posting results ahead of the open. These are expected to bring earnings growth of +23%, +15.8% and +17%, respectively. All three banks currently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), but any of these rankings can change with a much better (or worse) earnings performance.
We don’t foresee any economic print as important as today’s CPI numbers Wednesday, but the wholesale pricing survey — the Producer Price Index (PPI) — comes out ahead of the open. This report — along with Retail Sales, also out tomorrow — is delayed due to the government shutdown, and will post November numbers, a month in arrears from CPI this morning. Included in tomorrow’s haul will be Existing Home Sales, Business Inventories and Fed’s Beige Book.
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Ross Stores benefits from strong customer response across both banners, aiding sales. ROST posted 10% year-over-year sales growth, driven by 7% comps increase in Q3.
Casey’s fuel business once again outperformed broader industry trends, strengthening the company’s competitive positioning and reinforcing its traffic-driving advantage.
The geographic concentration of assets and competition from developers and operators are key concerns for Vornado. High debt burden and elevated interest expenses add to its woes.
The company faces headwinds from the softness in construction and automotive markets. Hefty business separation costs, weak prices and tariffs may also impact results.
The lack of other marketed drugs creates heavy dependence on its approved MASH therapy, Rezdiffra, for revenue generation. Any setback for the drug will weigh heavily on the stock.
Exposure to cat loss inducing volatility in underwriting profit and increasing expenses from higher losses and settlement expenses and policy acquisition costs weighing on margin expansion concerns.
The operational constraints, combined with China’s inventory build-up, can harm the near term. Tight conditions in New Zealand, disruptions in Egypt and Trinidad and tariff impacts are other concerns.
American Eagle remains well placed on the back of cost-reduction efforts and brand progress. In addition, its Powering Profitable Growth plan bodes well.
Netflix’s accelerating ad business, AI-driven innovation, record engagement on content strength, focus on originals across various genres and languages are key positives.
