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With the federal government having finally ended its shutdown last week, this week we can get back to the business of examining economic reports. Chief of these is expected to be the U.S. Employment Report due Thursday morning. Where we last left off, an average of only +29K new jobs created over the past four months was making the Fed nervous about an unraveling labor market, which helped them decide to cut interest rates even as inflation metrics were ticking back up.
Compare this to the previous four-month average +122K and the +209K in the four months before that. The Unemployment Rate reached +4.3% in our last print, the highest since October 2021 (when unemployment was still falling precipitously; we had been as high as +14.9% at the Covid peak in April of 2020. New data on non-farm payrolls will be a welcome sight, whether or not the situation improves. Either way, we’ll no longer be flying blind.
Despite President Trump’s recent claim that the U.S. has “virtually no inflation,” last Friday he reversed tariff policy on food staple imports. These include beef, coffee and bananas, from countries like Guatemala, Ecuador and Argentina. Overall, more than 200 household items will be exempted from tariff policies, and just in time for Americans to prep their Thanksgiving dinner festivities.
Empire State Growth Highest in a Year: 18.7
The Empire State Manufacturing Index for November came in more than 3x higher than expected to 18.7 this morning, following 10.7 the previous month and the highest since November of last year. It’s also the fourth positive manufacturing print for the state of New York in the last five months. New orders and shipments were both up, while input and selling prices pulled back to still-elevated levels.
From March through June, Empire State manufacturing reported sub-zero tallies, so this reversal is welcome news indeed. That said, optimism among manufacturers in New York going forward has come down somewhat in this latest survey, to 19.1 from 30.3 last time around.
Earnings Update Ahead of the Bell
Calendar Q3 earnings season is winding down this week, and the reason we know this is because NVIDIANVDA is reporting earnings this week, on Wednesday after the bell. Expectations are still enormous from the $4.6 trillion-dollar market cap chipmaker: +53.1% on earnings growth and +55.7% on revenues. It has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters by an average of +3.56%. NVIDIA currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
This is also a big earnings week for retailers. These include Home Depot HD on Tuesday, Target TGT and The TJX Companies TJX Wednesday and Walmart WMT on Thursday. All of these companies are presently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)-rated firms going into their earnings prints.
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NICE leads in Customer Engagement with CXone, expanding through acquisitions like LiveVox, and demonstrates strong performance in CX solutions & Financial Crime sector.
Affiliated Managers is well-positioned for growth, driven by focus on alternative strategies, successful partnerships, global distribution capability and strong balance sheet and liquidity position.
Corning’s focus on innovation, its diverse product portfolio, secular growth drivers, favorable regulations and strategic reorganization are positives.
Low level of compensation expense, launch of new products and services, development of proprietary software and steadily rising emerging market customers will aid Interactive Brokers’ financials.
Rockwell Automation will benefit from improving order levels, expanding portfolio of products, solutions and services, growth investments and acquisitions. Focus on productivity will drive margins.
Product enhancements and introductions, growing recurring revenues, improving mix of software and services revenues, and acquisition benefits are positives.
Broad range of product and service offerings, ADAS technology development, new business wins, solid liquidity profile and investor friendly moves augur well for Magna's prospects.
Weaker demand in Europe and China and the slowdown in architectural coatings EMEA demand are likely to impact performance. The high debt level is another concern.
Downtime due to turnarounds may impact Mosaic's performance. It also faces headwinds from higher costs of key inputs. A high debt level is another concern.
Decent loan demand and expansion into new markets by opening financial centers are expected to support Bank of America. Also, digital enhancement will likely keep aiding cross-selling opportunities.
Kroger drives growth with digital expansion, private label success, fresh offerings and strategic partnerships, while investments in AI and value creation fuel long-term scalability.
Central Garden & Pet advances digital, supply chain and product innovation while driving margin gains and M&A, backed by strong financials and a focused Cost and Simplicity program.
Align Technology’s robust product line, balanced growth across all channels and consistent focus on international markets to drive growth bolster our confidence in the stock.
