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After one of the worst starts to a year ever for stocks, the latter half of March has witnessed a surge for the history books. The bounce has been almost unfathomable as the S&P 500 is now about 4% away from all-time highs after being down as much as 13.7%.
Earlier this month, the S&P 500 gained 5% in one week alone. According to LPL Research, there have been 12 other times since the March 2009 lows that saw the S&P 500 gain at least 5% in one week. What happened in the weeks that followed this bullish price action?
A month later, the S&P 500 gained 11 out of the 12 times with an average gain of 4.6%.
Adding to the bull case, back on March 18th the S&P had gained 1% or more for four days in a row. Going back to 1950, that had only happened four other times. One month later we were higher 3 out of the 4 times with a median gain of 3.2%. And a year later, we were higher 4 out of 4 times with a median gain of 27.5%.
And it gets even better when we zoom out and view April from a seasonal perspective.
Looking at next month, April is the best month for the Dow since 1950 – averaging about a 2% gain. The Dow has been up 16 straight years in April and has rarely been a “dangerous” month. It’s a similar story for the S&P 500, as it is the best month on average dating back to 1950. The S&P has also been up 15 of the past 16 years, with an average gain of 3.1%.
While investors have been searching for a positive catalyst amidst all the negative headlines, both March and April are seasonally strong months. The positive seasonality coupled with historically low levels of sentiment have sparked this rally. In fact, in the last 70 years, the only time that sentiment (as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) was that low and we didn’t have a recession was the 2011 bear market – which ended up being a great buying opportunity.
Let’s take a look at a top Zacks Rank ‘Buy’ stock that has been outperforming and is set to continue its bullish run into April and beyond.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that creates transformative medicines for people with serious and life-threatening diseases. VRTX develops and commercializes therapies targeting disorders such as cystic fibrosis, kidney disease, diabetes, and musculoskeletal pain. The company has collaborations with several well-known players in the industry such as Moderna and CRISPR Therapeutics. Vertex Pharmaceuticals was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, MA.
VRTX has exceeded earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, sporting an average +10.01% beat over that timeframe. The biotech giant most recently reported Q4 EPS of $3.37, surpassing the $3.28 consensus estimate by +2.74%. The stock has responded favorably as it just hit a fresh 52-week high today and has advanced nearly 20% this year alone.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Last year, VRTX reported revenues of $7.6 billion, reflecting 22% growth year-over-year. Earnings rose 26% to $13.02 per share. The estimates appear favorable for both sales and earnings, as this year they are expected to rise 12.93% ($8.55 billion) and 11.52% ($14.52/share), respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Make sure to put VRTX on your watchlist as we head into the seasonally strong month of April.
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Why April Has the Bulls Beaming
After one of the worst starts to a year ever for stocks, the latter half of March has witnessed a surge for the history books. The bounce has been almost unfathomable as the S&P 500 is now about 4% away from all-time highs after being down as much as 13.7%.
Earlier this month, the S&P 500 gained 5% in one week alone. According to LPL Research, there have been 12 other times since the March 2009 lows that saw the S&P 500 gain at least 5% in one week. What happened in the weeks that followed this bullish price action?
A month later, the S&P 500 gained 11 out of the 12 times with an average gain of 4.6%.
Adding to the bull case, back on March 18th the S&P had gained 1% or more for four days in a row. Going back to 1950, that had only happened four other times. One month later we were higher 3 out of the 4 times with a median gain of 3.2%. And a year later, we were higher 4 out of 4 times with a median gain of 27.5%.
And it gets even better when we zoom out and view April from a seasonal perspective.
Looking at next month, April is the best month for the Dow since 1950 – averaging about a 2% gain. The Dow has been up 16 straight years in April and has rarely been a “dangerous” month. It’s a similar story for the S&P 500, as it is the best month on average dating back to 1950. The S&P has also been up 15 of the past 16 years, with an average gain of 3.1%.
While investors have been searching for a positive catalyst amidst all the negative headlines, both March and April are seasonally strong months. The positive seasonality coupled with historically low levels of sentiment have sparked this rally. In fact, in the last 70 years, the only time that sentiment (as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) was that low and we didn’t have a recession was the 2011 bear market – which ended up being a great buying opportunity.
Let’s take a look at a top Zacks Rank ‘Buy’ stock that has been outperforming and is set to continue its bullish run into April and beyond.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX - Free Report)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that creates transformative medicines for people with serious and life-threatening diseases. VRTX develops and commercializes therapies targeting disorders such as cystic fibrosis, kidney disease, diabetes, and musculoskeletal pain. The company has collaborations with several well-known players in the industry such as Moderna and CRISPR Therapeutics. Vertex Pharmaceuticals was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, MA.
VRTX has exceeded earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, sporting an average +10.01% beat over that timeframe. The biotech giant most recently reported Q4 EPS of $3.37, surpassing the $3.28 consensus estimate by +2.74%. The stock has responded favorably as it just hit a fresh 52-week high today and has advanced nearly 20% this year alone.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Last year, VRTX reported revenues of $7.6 billion, reflecting 22% growth year-over-year. Earnings rose 26% to $13.02 per share. The estimates appear favorable for both sales and earnings, as this year they are expected to rise 12.93% ($8.55 billion) and 11.52% ($14.52/share), respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Make sure to put VRTX on your watchlist as we head into the seasonally strong month of April.