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Bear of the Day: The Mosaic Company (MOS)

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The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash for the global agriculture industry. The company is the biggest integrated phosphate producer globally and among the four largest potash producers worldwide.

Analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s earnings outlook, pushing the stock into an unfavorable Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s take a closer look at the company.

Current Standing

The company posted mixed results in its latest quarterly release, falling short of the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate by nearly 11%. In fact, Mosaic has struggled to exceed earnings expectations consistently, carrying a -10.8% average EPS surprise over its last four quarters.

Still, revenue results have been more positive, with MOS exceeding sales estimates in back-to-back quarters.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company’s growth is expected to taper off, with estimates indicating a 60% pullback in earnings on 30% lower revenues for its current fiscal year (FY23). And in FY24, projections allude to a further 20% decline in the bottom line on 13% lower sales.

Analysts have been bearish for some time now, with the $4.49 per share estimate being revised more than 60% lower since June of 2022. This is illustrated in the chart below.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Shares do pay a solid dividend, currently yielding 2.4% annually paired with a sustainable payout ratio sitting at 10% of the company's earnings. Dividend growth is also there, with the company sporting a sizable 53% five-year annualized dividend growth rate.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

Negative earnings estimate revisions from analysts and weak quarterly results paint a challenging picture for the company’s shares in the near term.

The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s earnings outlook.

For those seeking strong stocks, a great idea would be to focus on stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – these stocks sport a notably stronger earnings outlook paired with the potential to deliver explosive gains in the near term.


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