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January 2025 was a solid U.S. share-returns month.
YTD to Feb. 4th, 2025, the narrow DJIA was up +4.41%, the broad S&P500 was up +2.01%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +1.36%. The small-cap RUT index was up +1.27%.
The last 2 years delivered exceptional annual returns years for U.S. share indices.
Across 2024, the narrow DJIA index was up +12.88%, the broader S&P500 index was up +25.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +24.88%. The small-cap RUT index was up +11.54%.
Across 2023, the narrow DJIA index was up +13.70%, the broader S&P500 index was up +26.29%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +53.81%. The small-cap RUT index was up +16.93%.
The historical expected annual return (using data from 1930 to 2021)? +7.9%.
Over the last 30 years? +11.1% annual U.S. returns.
6,823 is the “bottoms up” target for the next 12 months on the S&P500 index.
That is a +12.3% annual return, over a closing price of 6,071.
Zacks uses 5,594 at Year End 2025 as our S&P500 ‘fair value’ target base.
What to make of that S&P500 index price difference between 6,823 and 5,594?
There is a major case to be made — for a share price correction — during this year.
II. What Sector Opportunities Look Attractive, Within the S&P500?
Always keep up-to-date. Apply a 12M forward-looking COVID earnings landscape.
Study the latest estimates on 2025, with the S&P500 overall annual EPS at 13.9%!
Below are Zacks 2025 y/y EPS data on Jan. 31st, 2025.
Recall: Markets look ahead 6-12-18 months.
Aerospace (+63.7%)
Consumer Discretionary (+27.5%)
Medical (+22.0%)
Technology (+16.7%)
Basic Materials (+11.8%)
Business Services (+11.4%)
Autos (+11.1%)
Retail/Wholesale (+10.7%)
Conglomerates (+9.6%)
Finance (+9.3%)
Utilities (+7.9%)
Oil/Energy (+7.5%)
Consumer Staples (+4.0%)
Construction (+3.7%)
Industrial Products (+2.2%)
Play sectors on a 2025 (maybe 2026) EPS/revenue build. These are the force-ranked bull plays.
Now, let’s study the latest, more short-term, FEB Zacks Industry Rankings.
We can do a top-down strategist drill-down, and identify specific share opportunities.
Ones that have a top Zacks Sector/Industry strength rating behind them.
Savvy stock traders can use this screening tactic, as a broad share market catalyst too.
III. Zacks FEB 2025 Sector/Industry/Company Telescope
Applying this approach, I supply 3 large-cap portfolio picks for you, in this third section.
The Jan. 31st, 2025 Zacks Industry Ranks compressed, a bit.
I noted no very strong sectors and fewer very weak sectors too.
Zacks Industry Ranks supplied three Attractive sectors: The top one is Info Tech. The growth gets enabled by “AI” data/cloud centers and ongoing tech mega-cap earnings strength.
Financials and Communication Services also get set at an Attractive rating. Data showed two Market Weight sectors: Consumer Discretionary and Utilities.
There were a three Unattractive Sectors: Health Care, Materials, and Energy.
There were two Very Unattractive Sectors: Industrials and Consumer Staples.
(1) Info Tech fell to Attractive from Very Attractive. Semis and Misc. Tech led.
Image: Bigstock
Off to a Solid Start in 2025: Zacks FEB Market Strategy
The following is an excerpt from Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank’s full Feb Market Strategy report To access the full PDF, click here.
I. An S&P500 Year-end 2025 Target
January 2025 was a solid U.S. share-returns month.
YTD to Feb. 4th, 2025, the narrow DJIA was up +4.41%, the broad S&P500 was up +2.01%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +1.36%. The small-cap RUT index was up +1.27%.
The last 2 years delivered exceptional annual returns years for U.S. share indices.
Across 2024, the narrow DJIA index was up +12.88%, the broader S&P500 index was up +25.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +24.88%. The small-cap RUT index was up +11.54%.
Across 2023, the narrow DJIA index was up +13.70%, the broader S&P500 index was up +26.29%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +53.81%. The small-cap RUT index was up +16.93%.
6,823 is the “bottoms up” target for the next 12 months on the S&P500 index.
That is a +12.3% annual return, over a closing price of 6,071.
Zacks uses 5,594 at Year End 2025 as our S&P500 ‘fair value’ target base.
What to make of that S&P500 index price difference between 6,823 and 5,594?
There is a major case to be made — for a share price correction — during this year.
II. What Sector Opportunities Look Attractive, Within the S&P500?
Always keep up-to-date. Apply a 12M forward-looking COVID earnings landscape.
Study the latest estimates on 2025, with the S&P500 overall annual EPS at 13.9%!
Below are Zacks 2025 y/y EPS data on Jan. 31st, 2025.
Recall: Markets look ahead 6-12-18 months.
Play sectors on a 2025 (maybe 2026) EPS/revenue build. These are the force-ranked bull plays.
Now, let’s study the latest, more short-term, FEB Zacks Industry Rankings.
We can do a top-down strategist drill-down, and identify specific share opportunities.
Ones that have a top Zacks Sector/Industry strength rating behind them.
Savvy stock traders can use this screening tactic, as a broad share market catalyst too.
III. Zacks FEB 2025 Sector/Industry/Company Telescope
Applying this approach, I supply 3 large-cap portfolio picks for you, in this third section.
The Jan. 31st, 2025 Zacks Industry Ranks compressed, a bit.
I noted no very strong sectors and fewer very weak sectors too.
Zacks Industry Ranks supplied three Attractive sectors: The top one is Info Tech. The growth gets enabled by “AI” data/cloud centers and ongoing tech mega-cap earnings strength.
Financials and Communication Services also get set at an Attractive rating. Data showed two Market Weight sectors: Consumer Discretionary and Utilities.
There were a three Unattractive Sectors: Health Care, Materials, and Energy.
There were two Very Unattractive Sectors: Industrials and Consumer Staples.
(1) Info Tech fell to Attractive from Very Attractive. Semis and Misc. Tech led.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY): CrowdStrike (CRWD - Free Report)
(2) Financials stayed Attractive. Investment Banking & Brokering, Major Banks, & Finance looked best. Again.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY): Citigroup (C - Free Report)
(3) Communications Services rose to Attractive from Market Weight. Telco Equipment was the best. Again.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY): Amphenol (APH - Free Report)
(4) Consumer Discretionary fell to Market Weight from Attractive. Non-food Retail/Wholesale and Media looked good.
(5) Utilities stayed at Market Weight. Utility – Gas Distribution looked the best. Again.
(6) Health Care fell to Unattractive from Market Weight. Drugs looked best. Again.
(7) Materials rose to Unattractive from Very Unattractive. Paper looked best.
(8) Energy rose to Unattractive from a Very Unattractive rating. Oil/Gas Pipelines and Energy-Alternates looked the best.
(9) Industrials stayed at Very Unattractive. Transport – Air looked strong. Again.
(10) Consumer Staples stayed Very Unattractive. Agri-business was the strongest.
IV. Conclusion
Keep this in mind! It is a single but powerful statement, drawn from the FEB Market Strategy report.
“A legacy from excessive money printing drives stock prices, over projections for EPS growth.”
Enjoy the rest of my Zacks FEB 2025 Market Strategy report!
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist