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Bull of the Day: Howmet Aerospace (HWM)

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Howmet Aerospace is a global provider of advanced engineering solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. Formerly known as Arconic, Howmet Aerospace was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

This stock is displaying relative strength this year and has been making a series of all-time highs. The broader aerospace sector held up extremely well through the market volatility earlier in the year. Increasing volume has attracted investor attention as buying pressure accumulates in this top-ranked stock.

A Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Howmet is part of the Zacks Aerospace - Defense industry group, which currently ranks in the top 27% out of more than 250 industries. Because this group is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect it to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has so far this year:

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Take note of the favorable characteristics for this group below. Stocks in this industry are relatively undervalued based on traditional valuation metrics. They are also projected to experience above-average earnings growth, which signifies a powerful combination that should lead to higher prices in the future.

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Historical research studies suggest that approximately half of a stock’s price appreciation is due to its industry grouping. In fact, the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

It’s no secret that investing in stocks that are part of leading industry groups can give us a leg up relative to the market. By focusing on leading stocks within the top industries, we can dramatically improve our stock-picking success.

Company Description

The strongest driver of Howmet’s business at the moment is the commercial aerospace market. The strength in air travel continues with wide-body aircraft demand also picking up, supporting resilient OEM spending.

Pickup in air travel is generally positive for the company because the increased usage of aircraft spurs spending on parts that Howmet provides and also encourages airlines to buy more aircraft, which further boosts its sales.

Howmet (HWM - Free Report) offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines. The company also produces aerospace fastening systems as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners.

Revenues from the commercial aerospace market increased 9% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, constituting 52% of its business. The sustained strength was attributed to new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions and increased spare demand for engines.

An expanding defense budget also remains a key catalyst for Howmet. The defense side of the industry has been witnessing positive momentum, cushioned by steady government support. The company has been experiencing robust orders for engine spares for the F-35 program and new builds for legacy fighters. In the first quarter, revenues from the defense aerospace market increased 19% from the prior-year period, accounting for 17% of the company’s revenues.

Earnings Trends and Future Estimates

Howmet has built an incredible track record in terms of surpassing earnings estimates; the company hasn’t missed the EPS mark since 2020.

Just a few short weeks ago, Howmet delivered first-quarter earnings of 86 cents per share, which marked an 11.6% surprise over the 77-cent consensus estimate. Total revenues of $1.94 billion also exceeded projections and jumped 6% from the year-ago quarter.

The aerospace and defense leader delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 8.8%. Consistently beating earnings estimates is a recipe for success.

Following the strong performance, Howmet raised its 2025 adjusted EPS outlook, reflecting confidence in its operational execution and exposure to flourishing aerospace markets. The company increased its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $3.36-$3.44 compared with $3.13-$3.21 expected earlier.

Howmet continues to witness rising earnings estimates as the company benefits from momentum in the commercial aerospace market. Analysts covering HWM increased their full-year EPS estimates by 6.13% in the past 60 days. The 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate now stands at $3.46/share, translating to a healthy 28.6% growth rate versus last year.

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Let’s Get Technical

This market leader has seen its stock advance more than 50% already this year, all while the general market witnessed a drastic correction. Only stocks that are in extremely powerful uptrends are able to experience this type of outperformance. This is the kind of stock we want to include in our portfolio – one that is trending well and receiving positive earnings estimate revisions.

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Image Source: StockCharts

Notice how both the 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages are sloping up. The stock has been making a series of higher highs throughout the past year. With both strong fundamental and technical indicators, HWM stock is poised to continue its outperformance.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. As we know, Howmet has recently witnessed positive revisions. As long as this trend remains intact (and Howmet continues to deliver earnings beats), the stock will likely continue its bullish run.

Bottom Line

Howmet’s measures to reward shareholders are encouraging. In the first quarter of 2025, the company paid dividends of $42 million and repurchased shares worth $125 million. Its sound liquidity position is an added positive.

Backed by a leading industry group and history of earnings beats, it’s not difficult to see why HWM stock is a compelling investment. Robust fundamentals combined with an appealing technical trend certainly justify adding shares to the mix.

Recent positive earnings estimate revisions should also serve to create a ‘floor’ in terms of any sudden or unexpected downside moves. If you haven’t already done so, be sure to put HWM on your shortlist.


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