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Last time we talked, I told you how keeping a trade journal made me a better trader, but it was learning to read the market (and my own emotions) and anticipate what would happen next that took things to the next level.

My predictions weren't perfect, of course. Far from it. But that wasn't the point. The point was that when I went back later, I could see exactly where my thinking was right... and where I was dead wrong.

Suddenly, I wasn't just reacting to the market — I was testing my own instincts, refining my strategy and understanding of the market, and seeing where I was getting in my own way.

So, if the secret to trade journaling isn't just about tracking what happened — it's about strengthening your ability to anticipate what happens next — how do you actually do that? How do you go from simply recording trades to making real, actionable predictions?

The key is using your journal as a tool for reflection, forecasting, and refining your strategy. Here's how to start.

Step 1: Analyzing Your Past Trades Like a Pro

Before you can make better predictions, you need to assess how well you're reading the market right now. Are your instincts already solid, and you just need to refine them so you can spot winning setups more consistently? Or are you missing key signals, struggling to anticipate moves, and unsure where to start?

Well, a great place to start is looking back at your past trades and evaluating your decision-making. Ask yourself the following questions:

- When you opened each of those trades, you must have seen some potential for a profit. What was it? What made you enter that trade?

- Did the trade go as planned? Did it hit your targets, or did it move in an unexpected way?

- Now that you see the bigger picture, was your entry actually good? Your exit? Were your targets realistic?

- What happened after you closed? Did the stock keep running? Did it reverse?

- If you pivoted away from your original plan, was that the right choice? Would the trade have turned out better or worse if you had stuck to your original plan?

- Would a different strategy have worked better? Just a small adjustment?

You don't need to do this for every trade, but reviewing past trades with this level of detail will show you where your instincts were strong — and where they led you astray.

This isn't about beating yourself up for bad trades. It's about identifying patterns and sharpening your intuition.

Once you have a clear idea of where you're making strong decisions and where you're getting in your own way, you can move to the next step: making predictions.

Step 2: Making Predictions Before You Trade

Now that you have a sense of how your past trades played out, it's time to start predicting what will happen in your new trades.

Every time you enter a trade, write down:

- Your thesis: Why are you taking this trade? What makes this setup strong?
- Your short-term expectation: How do you expect the stock to move? Will it pull back first or break out immediately?
- Key factors that could impact the trade: Earnings, market conditions, news catalysts — do these factors actually matter for this stock, or are they just noise?
- Anything that would make you change your plan: What needs to happen for you to stay in the trade longer? What would make you exit early? Change your targets?

This step is crucial. The goal isn't to be right 100% of the time — it's to start refining your ability to forecast market moves.

Step 3: Revisiting and Adjusting Your Predictions in Real Time

This is where things get fun.

Instead of making a single prediction, placing the trade, and then carrying on as usual, keep updating your thoughts in your notebook throughout the trade.

Is the stock moving the way you expected? If not, why? What factors are affecting it that you didn't anticipate? Are your emotions changing your decision-making?

For example, I noticed that when a trade had low liquidity, I started getting anxious and looking for any viable exit — even though my original thesis was still valid. Seeing that written out made it clear that it wasn't the trade that was weak — it was the market conditions. And now I always remember to check volume and open interest before I take a trade with a good setup.

By actively revisiting your predictions, you'll train yourself to think in probabilities rather than emotions.

Step 4: Tracking Your Emotions and Biases

By now, you've seen the patterns in your trades. You know where you're second-guessing yourself, which setups work best, and where your biggest mistakes come from. So the next step? Using that knowledge to get ahead of the market — before you even place a trade.

Most traders think their decisions are based on logic. But if you start writing down how you feel while you're in the trade, you'll quickly realize how much emotions actually influence your choices.

So while you're in a trade, note your emotions in the moment — without judgment.

Are you excited? Confident? Doubtful? Nervous?
Are you fighting the urge to close early?
When your trade is up 50%, do you still feel in control? Or does every small dip make you wonder if this is where it all falls apart?
When you're down 20%, what's your first instinct? Are you frustrated? Panicked? Do you feel the urge to double down — or to exit immediately just to stop feeling the pain?

Just writing this down — as it's happening — forces you to recognize the emotions shaping your decisions.

Then, when you review the trade later, compare your emotions to what actually happened.

Were your instincts good, or did your emotions push you in the wrong direction?
When you felt nervous, was there actually a reason — or was it just market noise?
When you panicked and sold, did the stock recover minutes later?
When you were overly confident, did you hold too long and give back gains?

This is how you start separating gut feelings from actual trading instincts.

If you see a pattern — where your emotions consistently lead you away from your best trades — that's your signal to start ignoring the noise in your head and trusting your plan instead.

On the other hand, if you find that your gut instincts are actually leading you to the right calls, then you've just identified a trading edge you can start refining.

Bottom line? Your emotions aren't good or bad — they're just data. The key is learning when to trust them and when to ignore them.

Step 5: Turning Your Insights Into a Repeatable System

At this point, you've gone from just recording trades to:

- Reviewing past decisions and learning from them.
- Making trade predictions and tracking their accuracy.
- Revisiting your thoughts throughout the trade to see what's changing.
- Recognizing your biases and emotional triggers.

Now it's time to turn all of this into a system. Use your journal to create personal trading rules and checks based on what's working.

- If a setup works best when volatility is high, write that down.
- If you keep selling too early out of fear, make a rule for holding longer.
- If you notice your best trades come when you ignore Twitter noise, remind yourself of that every time you enter a trade.

The more consistent you are in tracking, reviewing, and adjusting, the more refined your trading process will become.

Turn Your Trade Journal Into a Market Prediction Tool

Trade journaling isn't busywork. It's one of the most powerful ways to improve as an investor.

Because at the end of the day, success in the market isn't just about picking the right stocks — it's about making the right decisions, consistently.

By using your journal to track, review, and predict your trades, you'll:

- Stop second-guessing yourself
- Learn from your own experience (instead of repeating mistakes)
- Develop a system that helps you grow your portfolio over time

Most people don't do this. They rely on gut feelings, hype, or pure guesswork. And that's why most traders don't last.

But you? You're different. You're building a process. And if you stick with it, a year from now, you won't just be trading better — you'll be thinking better.

And that's what separates the amateurs from the pros.