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Bet on Peace? Why Investors Should Fade Iran Conflict Fears
Key Takeaways
Betting markets believe the Iran conflict will conclude by the end of April.
The S&P 500 just flashed a rare, powerful momentum burst.
The AI boom is driving the entire U.S. economy.
Thus far in 2026, investors have had to contend with a flurry of uncertainty, geopolitical headlines, and erratic price action. Currently, the main thing investors are paying attention to and weighing is the conflict between the United States and Iran. While the two sides met over the weekend, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. and Iran were unable to come to an agreement, mainly due to a disagreement about whether or not Iran should have nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, after four consecutive down weeks, the Nasdaq and other major U.S. market indices have staged impressive rallies and are working on their third consecutive weekly gain. For now, the question investors are asking is, “Is the current move merely a countertrend rally or does it have legs?”
Betting Markets Suggest End to Iran War is on the Horizon
Betting markets such as Kalshi and PolyMarket have proven to be an invaluable tool recently. Unlike headlines that can be conflicting or misleading, betting markets are backed by real financial wagers, cutting through the noise and giving investors a clear picture of the odds of a given outcome. According to the latest data from PolyMarket, bettors overwhelmingly believe that the U.S./Iran war will end by the end of the month. Currently, the odds that the War ends by May are at 73%.
Image Source: PolyMarket
Oil is Losing Momentum
A key concern among investors is that an oil shock will lead to sustained inflation or even a “stagflation” period akin to the 1970s. However, despite the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is not at full capacity and negotiations between Iran and the U.S. fell through, the United States Oil Fund ((USO - Free Report) ) rose less than 3%. Additionally, USO is making lower lows in the short-term, a potential sign that oil may finally be losing momentum.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Market Momentum Begets More Momentum
The S&P 500 Index just recorded rare strength, rising for 7 consecutive days and more than 7%. Historically, this rare momentum leads to even more momentum. In past occurrences, the S&P 500 Index is up 85.7% of the time 6 months later for an above-average gain of 14.4%.
Image Source: Carson Investment Research @RyanDetrick
Bitcoin is a Leading Indicator
Bitcoin has been a reliable risk-on, leading indicator for equities. For example, Bitcoin topped in October, well before the Nasdaq did in January. Now, Bitcoin is breaking out from a multi-month downtrend line, suggesting investors may be ready to put risk on again.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The AI Infrastructure Snowballing Effect
According to Synergy Research, neocloud revenues are scaling fast, with the market expected to approach $400B by 2031 (with an expected 58% CAGR). With AI demand outpacing traditional hyperscaler capacity, GPU-first cloud providers like CoreWeave ((CRWV - Free Report) ) and Nebius ((NBIS - Free Report) ) are filling the gap.
Image Source: Synergy Research Group
Meanwhile, the AI boom is proliferating into “pick and shovel” plays like energy. By 2030, data center power demand is expected to grow at 220% (according to Goldman Sachs). On-site, behind-the-meter energy companies will benefit. Monday, Bloom Energy ((BE - Free Report) ) announced a $21 billion energy deal with Oracle ((ORCL - Free Report) ).
2026 IPO Anticipation
Several of the largest, most highly anticipated IPOs are slated for 2026, including SpaceX ($2 trillion), OpenAI ($852 billion), Anthropic ($500 billion), and Databricks ($134 billion). The anticipation of these IPOs may lead to a melt-up in price before a classic “sell the news” phenomenon.
Sentiment & Seasonality
Despite the rip-roaring market rally recently, many investors are skeptical, according to sentiment indicators like the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which currently has a “Fear” reading. As stocks continue to rally, bears may be forced to cover shorts, adding further fuel to the rally.
Image Source: CNN
Meanwhile, historical seasonality data suggests that the second half of April tends to favor the bulls.
Image Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com
Bottom Line
As we move into the second half of April, a period historically favored by bulls, the convergence of technical momentum, cooling oil prices, and contrarian “Fear” readings suggests the path of least resistance remains higher.
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Bet on Peace? Why Investors Should Fade Iran Conflict Fears
Key Takeaways
Thus far in 2026, investors have had to contend with a flurry of uncertainty, geopolitical headlines, and erratic price action. Currently, the main thing investors are paying attention to and weighing is the conflict between the United States and Iran. While the two sides met over the weekend, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. and Iran were unable to come to an agreement, mainly due to a disagreement about whether or not Iran should have nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, after four consecutive down weeks, the Nasdaq and other major U.S. market indices have staged impressive rallies and are working on their third consecutive weekly gain. For now, the question investors are asking is, “Is the current move merely a countertrend rally or does it have legs?”
Betting Markets Suggest End to Iran War is on the Horizon
Betting markets such as Kalshi and PolyMarket have proven to be an invaluable tool recently. Unlike headlines that can be conflicting or misleading, betting markets are backed by real financial wagers, cutting through the noise and giving investors a clear picture of the odds of a given outcome. According to the latest data from PolyMarket, bettors overwhelmingly believe that the U.S./Iran war will end by the end of the month. Currently, the odds that the War ends by May are at 73%.
Image Source: PolyMarket
Oil is Losing Momentum
A key concern among investors is that an oil shock will lead to sustained inflation or even a “stagflation” period akin to the 1970s. However, despite the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is not at full capacity and negotiations between Iran and the U.S. fell through, the United States Oil Fund ((USO - Free Report) ) rose less than 3%. Additionally, USO is making lower lows in the short-term, a potential sign that oil may finally be losing momentum.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Market Momentum Begets More Momentum
The S&P 500 Index just recorded rare strength, rising for 7 consecutive days and more than 7%. Historically, this rare momentum leads to even more momentum. In past occurrences, the S&P 500 Index is up 85.7% of the time 6 months later for an above-average gain of 14.4%.
Image Source: Carson Investment Research @RyanDetrick
Bitcoin is a Leading Indicator
Bitcoin has been a reliable risk-on, leading indicator for equities. For example, Bitcoin topped in October, well before the Nasdaq did in January. Now, Bitcoin is breaking out from a multi-month downtrend line, suggesting investors may be ready to put risk on again.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The AI Infrastructure Snowballing Effect
According to Synergy Research, neocloud revenues are scaling fast, with the market expected to approach $400B by 2031 (with an expected 58% CAGR). With AI demand outpacing traditional hyperscaler capacity, GPU-first cloud providers like CoreWeave ((CRWV - Free Report) ) and Nebius ((NBIS - Free Report) ) are filling the gap.
Image Source: Synergy Research Group
Meanwhile, the AI boom is proliferating into “pick and shovel” plays like energy. By 2030, data center power demand is expected to grow at 220% (according to Goldman Sachs). On-site, behind-the-meter energy companies will benefit. Monday, Bloom Energy ((BE - Free Report) ) announced a $21 billion energy deal with Oracle ((ORCL - Free Report) ).
2026 IPO Anticipation
Several of the largest, most highly anticipated IPOs are slated for 2026, including SpaceX ($2 trillion), OpenAI ($852 billion), Anthropic ($500 billion), and Databricks ($134 billion). The anticipation of these IPOs may lead to a melt-up in price before a classic “sell the news” phenomenon.
Sentiment & Seasonality
Despite the rip-roaring market rally recently, many investors are skeptical, according to sentiment indicators like the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which currently has a “Fear” reading. As stocks continue to rally, bears may be forced to cover shorts, adding further fuel to the rally.
Image Source: CNN
Meanwhile, historical seasonality data suggests that the second half of April tends to favor the bulls.
Image Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com
Bottom Line
As we move into the second half of April, a period historically favored by bulls, the convergence of technical momentum, cooling oil prices, and contrarian “Fear” readings suggests the path of least resistance remains higher.