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4 Duds in a Row

Yesterday I spoke about "3 strikes you're out" with a trio of weak economic reports (ISM Mfg, ISM Services and ADP Employment). Now add the worst Jobless Claims reading in months to the mix. That makes 4 duds in a row.

This means that a lot is riding on the Government Employment Situation report 8:30am Friday morning. Estimates stand at 193,000 jobs added for the month. That may be too much to ask for given the soft ADP showing.

I did not like the mojo coming into this report so I am now down to 60% long the market (after being north of 100% long all of 2013 with the help of leveraged ETFs). Meaning I expect the market to be ready for an extended consolidation period or even modest contraction in the near future.

That is just the short term picture. The long term bull is still in place until there is a real threat of a recession on the horizon (gladly that is not a serious concern). So traders should consider taking some profits and getting more defensive for a while. We will likely have a chance to buy aggressively on dips over the next few weeks.

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