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Beware September?

On the surface, the last day of August looked like a sleepy session as the S&P was down only ?0.32%. Yet when you throw a glance at the ?1.56% massacre for the small caps in the Russell 2000, then you know it was far from a tame day in the markets.

Reity, what does September look like?

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac it is the worst month of the year for stocks with an average loss of -0.6% for the S&P. That is not very ominous. Nor is the fact that September is actually in the plus column 45% of the time.

So that means that each September needs to be weighed on its own merits. This time around we are still in the midst of a long term bull rally. But there are obstacles in our way (Syria, QE Taper, New Fed Chair, Debt Limit to name a few).

This makes me suspect that September will be range bound between the 50 day moving average at 1660 and the 200 day moving average at 1561. Yet we may play in a tighter range with 1600 at the low end.

Again, not very ominous with likely more gains to be made as these obstacles get cleared away. That is why I remain 100% long the market at this time.

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Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity...pronounced "Righty")

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

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