Stocks Down For The Day, And The Month, But S&P And Nasdaq Up For The Quarter
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Stocks ended the day lower across the board. Same for the end of the month. And while the S&P and Nasdaq eked out a small gain for the quarter (up 0.23% and 0.93% respectively), the Dow was down for the quarter by -1.91%, ending a 5 quarter winning streak. (The S&P's and Nasdaq's winning streak are still alive at 6 quarters in a row.)
All eyes have been on, and continue to be on, Washington.
Looks like Congress got the continuing resolution done, thus avoiding a government shutdown. This was the easiest of all the bills that are trying to get passed this week. But it only funds the government until December 3rd. So they'll be revisiting this again in a little over two months.
Next is the debt ceiling. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, we have until October 18th before the government runs out of money. So there's a bit of time left. But it won't be as easy as the continuing resolution. The debt ceiling could either be increased or suspended. But after yesterday's testimony by Secretary Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee, where she advocated for getting rid of the debt ceiling altogether, it's unclear how Congress will proceed.
Then we have the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill, not to mention the tax hikes to pay for it. Those remain up in the air. The deadlines for those were always arbitrary. But with so much money at stake, that could, or could not, be injected into the economy, the markets are paying close attention.
In other news, Weekly Jobless Claims came in higher than expected with new claims increasing by 11,000 to 362K vs. expectations for a decline to 335K.
The third and final estimate for Q2 GDP came in as expected at 6.7%, up from last month's second estimate of 6.6%. Personal Consumption Expenditures were also up, coming in at 12.0% (annual rate) vs. last month's estimate of 11.9%.
After-Tax Corporate Profits rose 70.5% y/y vs. last month's snapshot of 69.3%. With Inventory and Consumption Adjustments, it was up 45.1% y/y vs. last month's 42.3%.
And the Chicago PMI slipped to 64.7 vs. last month's 66.8 and views for 65.3. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding business sector. So it was a solid report. Just a bit under last month's pace.
Today we'll get Personal Income and Outlays, the PMI Manufacturing report, the ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, and Consumer Sentiment.
The focus will continue to be on Washington today. And probably next week as well.
But next week will also focus on the jobs market when we get Friday's always important Employment Situation report.
And then after that, the focus will shift to Q3 earnings season. And since stocks typically go up during earnings season, that's something everybody is probably looking forward to.
Best,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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