NVIDIA Gives AI Bulls More Fuel for the Rally
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This is Tracey Ryniec, Senior Stock Strategist and Editor of the Insider Trader and Value Investor portfolios, filling in for Kevin Matras today and tomorrow.
The Magnificent 7 stocks finally reminded everyone that they were worthy of that name yesterday as all 7 finished higher on the session.
Tesla shares have struggled this year, and are in the red for the year, but it saw the biggest rebound of the group yesterday, rising 6.3%. Will the 1-day rally be enough to quiet some critics who think it should be ousted from the Magnificent 7 designation? Yesterday's powerful move felt like the answer might be "yes."
Apple and Alphabet have also been in the doghouse this month, but they also turned it around yesterday, with Alphabet tacking on 4.3% in the session on rumors it has partnered with Apple to provide its AI technology, Gemini, for use in the iPhone.
AI news continues to dominate with NVIDIA making headlines out of its own developer conference called GTC. The AI stocks caught a bid again yesterday. The bulls seem to only take a few days break from those stocks before rushing in again. NVIDIA's bullishness about the near-term future for AI is adding more fuel to the AI stock rally.
Big Week for Housing News
There's a lot of housing news out this week. Yesterday we got the March Homebuilder Confidence Index. It came in at 51, above forecasts of 48 and up from 48 in February.
This index surveys the homebuilders for their insights into whether the market will be "good" or "bad" over the next 6 months. A reading over 50 indicates more believe it will be "good" than "bad." It is bullish. March's reading of 51 was the highest since July 2023.
All real estate is local, however. It's interesting to see what the regional numbers look like. All 4 of the regions saw their numbers rise in March, however, indicating that more homebuilders are getting bullish.
The Northeast had the highest regional index, at 59, up 2 points from the prior month. This is a very bullish number, indicating that the homebuilders in the Northeast are feeling very good about their market over the next six months. The Midwest rose 5 points to 41 while the West also gained 5 points to 43. The South jumped 4 points to 50.
This morning, we got the Housing Starts and Building Permits data for February which will also give us a better picture of what is going on in housing. The homebuilder stocks are, mostly, still trading at, or near, their all-time highs, but continue to have attractive valuations.
But all eyes are really on the FOMC and Chairman Powell this week. Today, the Federal Reserve begins its meeting and we'll have the interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's press conference tomorrow. This could be a market mover, even though no one expects any change in the interest rates.
Where is the Momentum?
Outside of AI stocks, energy continues to outperform this month. The Energy ETF (XLE) is up 6.5% over the last month while the S&P 500 has gained 2.9%. The XLE is near a 52-week high, but, remember, it was the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 last year.
WTI crude finished above $80 again yesterday, at $82.79. Exxon and Chevron, the two largest holdings in the XLE, making up about 40% of the ETF, have been moving higher with the price of crude. I'm keeping an eye on the energy complex this week as many energy producers are attending CERAweek, a big energy conference, in Houston.
I'll see you tomorrow.
Regards,
Tracey Ryniec
Stock Strategist at Zacks Investment Research , Zacks Investment Research
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