Stocks Closed Higher Yesterday, All Eyes On This Morning's Employment Report
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Stocks closed solidly higher yesterday ahead of this morning's employment report.
Wednesday afternoon's FOMC announcement, which briefly sent stocks higher before reversing course, got a second chance to react yesterday to what was actually a friendly announcement.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, lauded the progress made on lowering inflation over the past 2 years, but also acknowledged that progress had stalled. Nonetheless, he noted that it was unlikely the Fed's next move would be a rate hike, and suggested the Fed was still expecting to cut rates later this year.
Moreover, the Fed announced they would be shrinking their balance sheet at a slower pace (reducing the amount of Treasuries they let mature without being reinvested), starting in June.
All positive news.
With the Fed news behind us, the focus shifts to this morning's Employment Situation report.
The consensus is calling for 243,000 jobs in total being created, with 190,000 coming from the private sector, and 53,000 from the public. The unemployment rate is expected to stay the same at 3.8%. Same for the participation rate at 62.7%. While average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 0.3% m/m like last month, and the y/y rate is expected to dip a bit to 4.0% vs. last month's 4.1%.
That comes out at 8:30 AM ET today.
After the close yesterday, Apple reported earnings and posted a positive EPS surprise of 1.32%, and a positive sales surprise of 0.85%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 1.32% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of -4.31%. But positive comments about the company's future AI prospects, combined with Apple's largest share buyback program ($110 billion), sent shares soaring in after-hours trade by more than 7%.
Amgen reported after the close as well and posted a positive EPS surprise of 5.32%, and a positive sales surprise of 0.92%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of -0.50% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 22%. Shares were up 13% in after-hours.
And Block (formerly known as Square), posted a positive EPS surprise of 37.1%, and a positive sales surprise of 3.54%. That was a quarterly EPS growth rate of 112.5% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 19.4%. They were up more than 10% in after-hours trade, on top of the 5.18% before they reported.
Today we'll get earnings from another 116 companies, with the largest being Berkshire Hathaway.
In addition to this morning's jobs report, we'll get the PMI Composite report, and the ISM Services Index.
But the main event will indeed be the Employment report.
With one more trading day to go, the big three indexes (Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq), are down for the week so far, but the small-cap Russell 2000, and mid-cap S&P 400 are both up.
We'll see how the day goes. But a bullishly interpreted jobs report could put all of the indexes in the green for the week.
Either way, it should be a busy day.
Best,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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