Stocks closed higher yesterday on continued optimism for trade deals to come.

President Trump, in comments made yesterday, said that negotiations with India are "coming along great," and that "I think we'll have a deal with India."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed those sentiments saying, the U.S. was "very close on India."

Mr. Bessent also said that they've had "substantial talks" with Japan, and that the "contours of a deal" with South Korea are progressing as well.

The market liked what it heard. Yesterday's gains in the S&P marked the 6th up day in a row.

In other news, yesterday's Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.7% m/m (unadjusted) vs. last month's 0.1% and estimates for 0.2%. The y/y rate was up 4.5% vs. last month's 4.7% and views for the same.

Retail Inventories came in at -0.1% m/m, in line with last month's -0.1%.

Wholesale Inventories rose 0.5%, also in line with last month and just under the consensus for 0.6%.

The International Trade in Goods report showed the trade deficit in goods widen to -$162.0 billion vs. last month's -$147.8B. Imports rose 5.0% m/m vs. last month's -0.2%, while Exports rose 1.2% m/m vs. last month's 3.6%.

Consumer Confidence slipped to 86.0 vs. last month's 93.9 and expectations for 87.5. This was the 5th decline in as many months. And the lowest reading in 5 years.

And the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short) showed job openings at 7.192 million vs. last month's 7.480M and estimates for 7.464M.

Today we'll hear from another 261 companies on deck to report, including two Mag 7 stocks: Microsoft and Meta. Both report after the close.

On the economic report front today, we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales, the Chicago PMI, and the first estimate for Q1'25 GDP. The consensus is calling for 0.2%.

You'll recall, back in March, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecast put Q1'25 GDP at -2.8% after previously expecting 2.3%. That sent shockwaves thru the market with people talking about the possibility of a recession. At the moment, the GDPNow forecast is expecting -2.7%. Today's GDP report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the first look at Q1's scorecard on the economy.

But the main event is likely to be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The headline number is expected to come in flat at 0.0% m/m vs. last month's 0.3%, with the y/y rate at 2.2% vs. last month's 2.5%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) is expected to come in at 0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.4%. And the y/y rate is expected to ease to 2.6% vs. last month's 2.8%. That comes out at 10:00 AM ET.

With one more day to go in the month, the markets are looking much better. The S&P is only down -0.91% MTD, a far cry from their worst levels just a few weeks ago of -13.8%. The Nasdaq is actually positive on the month, so far, by 0.94%. At their worst, they were down as much as -14.5%.

A good PCE report, or some positive earnings, or some good news on tariffs/trade, could put the S&P over the top along with the other indexes.

See you tomorrow,