Stocks closed modestly lower on Friday and mixed for the week. The big three indexes (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) were down for the week (albeit by less than a half percent), while the small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 were up (by similar margins).

The lower closes on the big three indexes ended their winning streak at two up weeks in a row, but the small and mid-caps extended their winning streak to 5 up weeks in a row.

The market cheered the first trade deal (with the U.K.), which was announced on Thursday. This was the first of what is expected to be many in the coming weeks.

But uncertainty over trade talks with China over the weekend kept a lid on prices on Friday. And President Trump's comments on Friday morning that an "80% tariff on China seems right" left people wondering how the talks would go. On one hand, 80% is much lower than the 145% that's on them now. But on the other, 80% is still quite high. And it was a bit of a surprise, given that earlier reports had people expecting 60%. Although, the President deferred to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on where the number lands. But both of those numbers are still a far cry from the 10% tariffs that the U.S. just negotiated with the U.K.

But the mere fact that the two largest economies are talking was a good sign.

(Fast forward to the weekend, and it looks like the talks with China in Geneva went well. Mr. Bessent said "substantial progress was made." And President Trump said the U.S. had a "very good meeting with China." The President and Secretary Bessent are expected to give details on the talks today.)

Back to Friday -- there was not much else in the way of other news on Friday.

But there was plenty earlier in the week. Not the least of which was the FOMC Announcement last Wednesday, when the Fed left rates unchanged due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the possible impact they could have on inflation and the economy. Nonetheless, the Fed still expects to cut interest rates two times this year (presumably by 25 basis points each). The CME's FedWatch tool places a 59.1% likelihood that they begin cutting again at their July 30^th meeting (down from the previous 75% odds earlier), and an 85.9% likelihood for the September 17^th meeting.

Even though earnings season is winding down (more than 85% of the S&P 500 constituents have reported already), it continues with another 1,054 companies in queue to report, including Hertz, GoPro and Davita today.

We'll get our usual docket of economic reports this week.

But the main economic reports will be Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI ? retail inflation), and Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI -- wholesale inflation). Last month's CPI report showed core inflation (ex-food & energy) easing to 2.8% y/y vs. the previous month's 3.1%. And last month's PPI report also showed inflation ticking down, coming in at 3.3% vs. the previous month's 3.4%. And another set of softer inflation reports is likely to be cheered by the market.

Plenty of market moving news on deck this week.

But details of the weekend's trade talks with China is what everyone is waiting for today.

Could be a busy day.

See you tomorrow,