Stocks Closed Mostly Higher Yesterday, Trade Deal News And Inflation Reports On Tap For This Week
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Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday, but off their best levels of the day. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the advance with a 0.57% gain, followed by the Nasdaq with 0.31%.
Follow through from last week's better-than-expected employment report, and trade-deal optimism lifted stocks for most of the day. But those gains were pared by the close.
Trade negotiations with China are continuing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer are in London to talk with their counterparts.
As you'll recall, last month the U.S. and China spoke in Geneva, Switzerland. After the talks, it was announced there would be a 90-day pause on the escalated 'reciprocal' tariffs. The U.S. would lower their tariffs on China from 145% to just 30%, while China would bring theirs down from 125% to 10%.
Last week President Trump and President Xi spoke on the phone, which "resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries." They agreed to visit each other in their respective countries later in the year. In the meantime, the two sides are hoping to negotiate a deal that works for both of them.
Aside from China, there's also expectations for several trade deal announcements in the coming weeks. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which began on April 9th, has about 1 more month to go. The U.K. is the only country to have signed an agreement. Next up are likely to be India, Japan and South Korea.
There's plenty of optimism on the trade-deal front. But soon, we're going to have to see some signed contracts for that optimism to continue.
The market is also seeing support with the recent better-than-expected inflation data. Not only is inflation easing here in the U.S. (the latest PCE index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed core inflation (ex-food & energy) for May falling to 2.5% y/y from April's 2.7%), but we're seeing inflation ease in many places around the globe.
The European Central Bank (ECB), just last week, cut interest rates yet again by another 25 basis points, bringing rates down to 2%, following reports their inflation rate fell to 1.9% in May from April's 2.2%.
The expectation is for the Fed to begin cutting rates again by 25 basis points at their September 17th meeting. The Fed has stated they still see two rate cuts this year.
We'll get another look at U.S. inflation on Wednesday (6/11) with the Consumer Price Index (CPI ? retail inflation), and then again on Thursday (6/12), with the Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation).
The market goes into this week after 2 back-to-back up weeks in a row.
A little bit of good news on the trade front or inflation front (or both), could help in making it week number 3.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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