Stocks closed moderately lower yesterday after spending most of the day in the green.

Yesterday's better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI ? retail inflation) lifted stocks at the open.

The headline number was up 0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.2% pace and views for the same. The y/y rate came in at 2.4% vs. last month's 2.3%, but under the consensus for 2.5%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.1% vs. last month's 0.2% and estimates for 0.3%. The y/y rate came in at 2.8%, in line with last month and under the forecast for 2.9%.

This is the 4th month in a row where inflation readings have defied both worries and predictions for inflation to creep up.

We'll get another look at inflation today with the Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation). The headline number is calling for a 0.2% m/m increase vs. last month's -0.5%, with the y/y rate increasing to 2.6% vs. last month's 2.4%. The core rate is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m vs. last month's -0.4%, while the y/y rate is expected to stay the same at 3.1%, in line with last month.

Like the CPI, the PPI has seen similar progress on inflation over the previous three months. The March report showed inflation falling from 3.6% to 3.4%. The April report showed it falling from 3.4% to 3.3%. And May's report showed it falling from 3.3% to 3.1%.

In other news, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 12.5% w/w with purchases up 10.3%, and refi's up 15.6%.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House was open to extending the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to those who have shown "good faith" in ongoing trade negotiations.

This comes as the 90-day pause has just under 30 days left.

Mr. Bessent, in remarks before the House Ways and Means Committee, said the U.S. has 18 "important trading partners," and that the Administration is "working toward deals with those countries."

Currently, however, there's only 1 signed agreement with the U.K.

President Trump yesterday said that the U.S. and China have agreed on a "framework deal." While that's not a formal deal per se' (details have not been shared), it does keep trade flowing between the two countries, and keeps at bay the onerous reciprocal tariffs each country imposed on the other.

The market is expecting an announcement on several trade deals in the coming weeks/month. But whether those are forthcoming or not, as long as the reciprocal tariffs remain on hold, even after July 9^th, then it will be assumed those countries are in the process of working on a deal.

All of the major indexes are still up for the week so far.

And the S&P and Nasdaq both remain within striking distance of their all-time highs. In fact, the S&P is just 1.98% away, while the Nasdaq is only 2.77% away.

See you tomorrow,