Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, Erasing Early Morning Gains
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Stocks closed lower yesterday, erasing early morning gains.
Like the previous day, big banks reported earnings before the open, and once again, showed impressive results. U.S. Bancorp posted a positive EPS surprise of 9.91%, and a positive sales surprise of 2.42%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 18.4% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 7.32%.
Charles Schwab reported before the bell as well and posted a positive EPS surprise of 5.65%, and a positive sales surprise of 3.00%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 70.1%, and a sales growth of 26.6%.
And KeyCorp reported in the AM and posted a positive EPS surprise of 7.89%, and a positive sales surprise of 0.28%, for a quarterly EPS growth rate of 36.7%, and a sales growth of 18.1%.
But a regulatory filing from Zions Bancorp on Wednesday, when they disclosed a $50 million charge-off for bad loans, appeared to raise concerns over loan delinquencies from some regional banks.
Quite frankly, I don't think this sank the market. Especially, since Zions' charge-off appeared to stem from two commercial loans by borrowers facing fraud, and not rising delinquencies from consumer loans such as vehicle notes or mortgages.
And as we've seen, the banking sector has had another blowout quarter, with many big banks posting record or near-record earnings.
Tech is also impressing. Taiwan Semiconductor reported earnings before the open yesterday and posted a positive EPS surprise of 12.7%, and a positive sales surprise of 5.06%. They showed record earnings, which contributed to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 39%, and a sales growth of 41%. They also raised full-year revenue guidance.
Today we'll hear from American Express, State Street, and Huntington Bancshares to name a few. All in all, 27 companies are in queue to report today.
Next week that list grows to 503 companies, which includes Netflix and Texas Instruments on Tuesday, Tesla and IBM on Wednesday, Intel and The Blackstone Group on Thursday, and Proctor & Gamble and General Dynamics on Friday, amongst others.
That list doubles to over 1,015 the following week as earnings season kicks into gear.
Q3 earnings are expected to be up 5.5%, with Q4 up 7.3%, Q1'26 up 9.7%, and Q2'26 up 11.0%.
On the economic report-front yesterday, we were supposed to get Weekly Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index wholesale inflation report, and Retail Sales. But those were 'delayed' due to the government shutdown, which enters day 17 today, making it the 3rd longest shutdown since 1980. (The record is 35 days back in 2018/2109, followed by 21 days in 1995/1996.)
We're only halfway through October, but we're seeing why, historically, it's considered the most volatile month for stocks. Nonetheless, it typically ends higher for the month, so keep that in mind. Moreover, Q4 is the best quarter for stocks. So, there's that as well.
We'll see if the market can firm up today, and finish the week with a plus sign, or be forced to settle with a minus sign.
In the meantime, all of the major indexes are within striking distance of their all-time highs.
Best,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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