Stocks closed higher on Wednesday with all of the indexes in the green.

The markets usually go up the week of Thanksgiving. And true to form, they've had a stellar week so far. Week-to-date, the Dow is up 2.56%; the S&P is up 3.17%; the Nasdaq is up 4.23%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 is up 4.92%. Wow!

One more day left this week -- today, which is a half-day (markets close at 1:00 PM ET). Odds continue in our favor for another up day. Since 1950, the S&P closes higher the day after Thanksgiving 65% of the time. And according to the Trader's Almanac, since 1987, it's closed higher 73% of the time. So there's a good chance we'll finish an already great week, even greater.

As for next week (week after Thanksgiving), the odds are mixed.

But December as whole, especially with it being a post-election year, has a 77.8% likelihood of finishing higher. (Q4 is the best quarter for stocks, after all.)

That doesn't mean there won't be volatility. But I am expecting a strong finish to the year. And if we do see any weakness, I'd look at that as an opportunity to buy rather than a place to sell.

We expected to get the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Wednesday (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge). But due to the government shutdown (even though it ended a couple of weeks ago), it's still delayed without a hard date for release. But it's widely expected it won't be released before the next FOMC Announcement, which comes out on December 10.

So the last, most up-to-date inflation report we'll see, including the Fed, was Tuesday's Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation) report. Gladly, that report showed inflation easing with the core rate (ex-food & energy) coming in at 2.6% y/y, which is down from the previous report's 2.8%.

With inflation becoming less of a risk, and the labor market becoming the larger focus, that bodes well for another interest rate cut in December.

The CME's FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December at 84.9%, up from 81% earlier this week, and 71% last week.

Today is Black Friday. Estimates are mixed on whether total sales (online and in-store) will be higher or lower than last year. But record crowds are predicted. And online sales are expected to rise 8-10%. Given that roughly 66% of Black Friday sales last year came from online shopping, that suggests we could see another increase this year. We shall see.

Then we'll get Cyber-Monday next week. Sales are expected to be up 6% y/y.

As you know, I'm still expecting the S&P to be up 20%+ this year. With the S&P currently up 15.8%, that means there's still more to go for that to happen.

The last time we saw back-to-back gains of 20% or more in the S&P (1995 and 1996), it was followed by 3 more years of 20% gains. That was 5 long, glorious years of gains (a 220% increase), led by the internet and dot-com boom.

I see the same thing happening this time. After 2 years in a row of 20%+ gains in 2023 and 2024, I?m expecting another 20%+ gain this year, and for the next 2 years (if not more), after that. And we can thank the modern-day tech boom, driven by AI, for that.

So make sure you're taking full advantage of it.

Best,