Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday after a strong start to the year. All of the major indexes remain in the plus column for 2026, so far.

Yesterday's MBA Mortgage Applications report showed the Composite Index up 0.3% w/w with purchases down -6.2%, but refi's up 7.4%.

The ISM Services Index rose to 54.4 vs. last month's 52.6 and views for 52.2.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (JOLTS) came in at 7.15 million vs. last month's downwardly revised 7.45M (from 7.67M), and estimates for 7.65M.

And the ADP Employment Report estimated there were 41,000 new private payroll jobs created in December. That was a bit under the consensus for 47,000, but well above last month's upwardly revised -29,000 (from -32,000).

Today we'll get Weekly Jobless Claims and the Challenger Job-Cut report.

But the jobs report everyone is really waiting for is Friday's Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). At the moment, the forecast for December jobs is calling for 55,000 jobs (55,000 in the private sector and 0 in the public sector), with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.6%.

The last report we got in mid-December (for November jobs) came in at 64,000 (69K in the private sector and -5K in the public sector), vs. the consensus for 40,000 (30K private and 10K public). The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% from the previous 4.4% and views for 4.5%.

The report also included numbers from October. That showed a decrease of -105,000 jobs. While the private sector gained 57,000 jobs, the government lost -162,000 jobs.

Yesterday's solid-enough ADP report suggests a decent showing from the BLS later this week. Although, ADP does have a spotty track record of foreshadowing what the BLS will say.

In other news, on Tuesday evening, President Trump said that Venezuela would "turn over" 30-50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., to be "used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States."

The White House wants U.S. oil companies to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela to rescue their ailing oil industry. Despite having record proven oil reserves of 303 billion barrels, which is even bigger than Saudi Arabia?s 267 billion, they are plagued by mismanagement, low production volume, and high costs, after decades of nationalization that saw output collapse by 70%.

Chevron is the only U.S. oil company still in the country, but has limited operations. Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, Marathon Oil and Amerada Hess, to name a handful, used to do business there, before the government took control of the industry and seized their assets.

The President also said that Venezuela will "be purchasing only American made products with the money they receive from our new oil deal." Those products include agricultural products, medicine, and medical devices and equipment, "to improve Venezuela's electric grid and energy facilities."

This is definitely a story to pay attention to.

On the topic of oil, the U.S. seized two oil tankers yesterday, suspected of carrying sanctioned oil. One was a Russian-flagged tanker, another an unmarked vessel. Russia, Iran and Venezuela are three of the largest purveyors of sanctioned oil. China is one of the largest buyers.

Two more trading days left before the first full week of 2026 is in the books. So far so good. YTD, the Dow is up 1.94%, the S&P is up 1.10%, the Nasdaq is up 1.47%, the small-cap Russell 2000 is up 3.77%, and the mid-cap S&P 400 is up 3.39%.

See you tomorrow,