Stocks Closed Higher On Friday, And Solidly Higher For The Week
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Stocks closed higher on Friday and for the week.
The standout performer was the small-cap Russell 2000 with an outsized gain for the week of 4.62%.
But all of the indexes rang in the new year with solid gains.
YTD (which was 1 week and 1 day), the Dow is up 3.00%; the S&P is up 1.76%; the Nasdaq is up 1.85%; the Russell 2000 is up 5.73%; and the mid-cap S&P 400 is up 4.68%.
Friday's Employment Situation report showed 50,000 jobs were created in December (37,000 in the private sector and 13,000 in the public) vs. the consensus for 55,000 (55,000 private and 0 public). The unemployment rate declined to 4.4% from last month's downwardly revised 4.5% (originally 4.6%), and estimates for 4.6%. The participation rate slipped to 62.4% from 62.5% and estimates for the same. And average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.2%, and in line with forecasts. The y/y rate came in at 3.8% vs. last month's upwardly revised 3.6% (originally 3.5%), and expectations for 3.8%.
Revisions for the last two months saw October revised down by -68,000 (from -105,000) to -173,000; and November revised down by -8,000 (from 64,000) to 56,000.
The biggest job gains in December came from the following sectors: Food Services & Drinking Places gained 27,000 jobs; Health Care was up 21,000; and Social Assistance employment was up 17,000 jobs.
On the downside, the biggest jobs lost were in Retail, which shed -25,000 jobs.
Overall, the report came in under expectations. And revisions continued to erode previously reported numbers.
It was a solid enough report to underscore the economy's resilience, but clearly weak enough for the Fed to continue to be concerned with downside risk to the labor market, in absolute terms, and in comparison to inflation.
As for inflation, we'll get a look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI ? retail inflation) on Tuesday, 1/13 (for December), and then a look at the Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation) on Wednesday, 1/14 (for November), and then again 2½ weeks later on 1/30 (for December). (Although, the Fed meets on January 27-28, so that last PPI won't come out until after the FOMC Announcement.)
At the moment, the odds favor a March cut vs. January. But the Fed insists they'll remain data dependent. So the inflation reports could very well influence what the Fed decides by month's end.
In other news, over the weekend, the White House issued a security alert for U.S. citizens to leave Venezuela due to armed militias setting up roadblocks looking for Americans and those sympathetic to the U.S.
The situation remains uncertain in that country. And the latest warning underscores the difficulty in getting oil companies to once again invest over there. Many oil executives, after meeting with the President last week, remain skeptical, and consider the country "uninvestable" at present. An executive at Exxon Mobile said "we've had our assets seized there twice."
So you can be sure companies will be looking for some sort of backstop or guarantee. And not just financially, but also some security guarantees for personnel. This will definitely be a topic to watch.
Also, over the weekend, it was reported that the U.S. launched a strike against ISIS targets in Syria.
And the U.S. warned Iran over their violent crackdown on anti-government protestors.
Any increased tension in the Middle East has the potential to impact oil.
In the meantime, the market is off to a great start.
Only 51 more weeks to go.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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