Stocks closed lower on Friday and for the week as Middle East concerns continued to weigh on the market.

Surging oil prices took its toll on equities, with crude oil up roughly 43% since the U.S./Israel strikes against Iran wrapped up its second week last week.

Despite the campaign being ahead of schedule, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's continued attacks on its neighbors, has increased worries that this could go on for longer than the stated 4-6 weeks that has been predicted.

Last week, the U.S. said it would be releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), as part of a coordinated effort by the G7 countries (and others) to tap as many as 400 million barrels of stored oil. The U.S. release is scheduled to begin this week and the drawdown will be spread out over 120 days.

On Saturday, the President said "many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran's attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe." Details on which countries will send ships and when have not yet been provided.

Also weighing on stocks on Friday was a modestly mixed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The headline rate was up 0.3% m/m, in line with estimates, and easing from last month's 0.4% pace, while the y/y rate was up 2.8%, coming in under both the consensus and last month's 2.9%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.4% m/m, same as last month and views for the same. The y/y rate ticked up to 3.1% vs. last month's 3.0% and forecasts for 3.0%. Not much of an increase. But the hike came from the core rate. And while the headline rate was lower, this was based on January data, which means we still have February to go, and the recent spike in energy prices won't be reflected until March's report.

The second estimate for Q4'25 GDP disappointed as well, with a reduced rate of 0.7% vs. the first estimate of 1.4%. While the lighter-than-expected first estimate was largely attributed to the record-long government shutdown in October and the first half of November, the second estimate's downward revision was blamed on reduced Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers (FSPDP), which is considered true demand.

This week we'll get a fair share of earnings with Micron, reporting on Wednesday, being the most anticipated one. But widely held names such as Dollar Tree report on Monday; Elbit Systems, Oklo and lululemon go on Tuesday; FedEx and Chinese-headquartered Alibaba report on Thursday; and Carnival reports on Friday.

The market will also be watching the NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference), which starts on Monday, 3/16 and runs thru Thursday, 3/19. It's a global AI conference, where 'developers, researchers, and business leaders come together to explore the next wave of AI innovation.' NVIDIA is expected to give updates on Blackwell architecture, new AI inference hardware, make announcements pertaining to robotics and agentic AI, and provide updates on Omniverse and CUDA.

Middle East headlines will continue to influence prices.

But plenty of non-geopolitical events this week could move the market as well.

See you tomorrow,