Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday, eking out fractional gains after erasing moderate intraday losses.

Unease over Tuesday's deadline for Iran kept markets on edge. But a late-afternoon report that Pakistan was trying to broker a 2-week pause gave hope for a last-minute deal.

After the close, and with only hours to go, President Trump announced the U.S. and Israel would pause strikes on Iran for 2 weeks. And Iran would do the same. A "double-sided ceasefire." Iran is expected to open the Strait of Hormuz for the next two weeks as well, as a show of goodwill. Details are murky. And some reports dispute what the other side has agreed to. Nonetheless, there does appear to be an agreement, albeit temporary, to end the hostilities, as discussions continue for a permanent one.

Futures markets saw equities jump between 2-3% on the news, while crude oil plunged -16%.

In other news, yesterday's Durable Goods Orders report showed New Orders off -1.4% m/m vs. last month's -0.5% and views for -0.2%. Ex-Transportation it was up 0.8% vs. last month's 0.3% and estimates for 0.7%. And Core Capital Goods were up 0.6% vs. last month's -0.4% and forecast for 0.3%.

Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications. And the FOMC Minutes from March's Fed meeting.

As you know, rates were left unchanged last month.

But in their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) (which they only release four times a year), they raised their shorter-term outlook for inflation. But left their medium-term and longer-term forecast unchanged at 2.0%.

They increased their real GDP estimates for all periods, with 2026 raised to 2.4% (up from their December forecast of 2.3%); 2027 was raised to 2.3% (up from 2.0%); 2028 was raised to 2.1% (up from 1.9%); and their longer-run forecast was raised to 2.0% (up from 1.8%).

And the unemployment rate moved only slightly. 2026 was steady at 4.4%. 2027 was increased to 4.3% from December's 4.2% forecast. 2028 was unchanged at 4.2%. And the longer-run rate was unchanged as well at 4.2%.

Additionally, their Fed Funds rate projections were largely steady with 2026 staying the same at 3.4%; 2027 remaining at 3.1%; 2028 staying at 3.1%; and the longer-run rate ticking up to 3.1% vs. December's forecast for 3.0%. The 3.4% outlook, and 3.1% outlook imply a rate cut of 25 basis points this year (as expected), and another 25 basis point cut next year (also as expected).

The Minutes could provide more details on the above, and in turn give more insight as to what comes next. The Minutes come out at 2:00 PM ET.

After that, the focus will pivot to Thursday's third and final GDP report (the second estimate was slashed to 0.7% from the first estimate of 1.4%), and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge).

Both will help inform the Fed's next decision on rates. But the PCE report will be for February, so it won't factor in the increase in energy prices.

Even though Q1 earnings season is unofficially underway, it officially kicks off next week when Alcoa reports on Wednesday, 4/16 after the close.

Earnings season is always an exciting time since stocks typically go up during earnings season.

And with double-digit earnings growth forecast for the next four quarters (Q1'26 is forecast at 12.8%; Q2'26 is forecast at 17.1%; Q3'26 is forecast at 14.2%; and Q4'26 is forecast at 16.0%), that augurs well not just for this earnings season, but for the rest of the year.

See you tomorrow,