Stocks soared yesterday with all of the major indexes up 2.5% or more.

The markets cheered the news of a 2-week ceasefire after Pakistan brokered a last-minute deal before the Tuesday night deadline (and threats of significant escalation) struck.

There were numerous stories all day long yesterday of both sides violating the ceasefire. Iran's parliament complained that Israel continues to attack Lebanon, that a drone entered Iran's air space, and that the U.S. is not allowing Iran to enrich Uranium.

Vice President Vance said, "ceasefires are always messy." He reiterated that Iran cannot be allowed to enrich uranium, and that Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire. And said, "if Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that's ultimately their choice." And he followed up by saying, "if they break their end of the bargain, they're going to see some serious consequences."

Nonetheless, the fragile ceasefire appears to be holding well enough for now.

In other news, yesterday's MBA Mortgage Applications showed the Composite Index off -0.8% w/w with purchases up 1.1%, and refi's down -2.8%.

And the FOMC Minutes packed no surprises. Policymakers varied on how long the Middle East conflict would last and what effect it would have on inflation, and ultimately interest rates. And the minutes confirmed that officials saw increased risks to both inflation and employment. But the overwhelming majority (11-1) voted to keep rates unchanged.

The next Fed meeting is April 28-29. At the moment, the odds are slim for a rate cut. Actually, the odds are greater for a rate increase at 1.6% rather than a cut. But either might as well be zero. You'd have to go all the way out to December to even get odds of 22.3% for a rate cut. However, the Fed's last SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) is still penciling in one 25 basis point rate cut this year.

Today we'll get Weekly Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, and Corporate Profits.

Additionally, we'll get the third and final GDP report (the second estimate was slashed to 0.7% from the first estimate of 1.4%).

And the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge). This will be for February, so it won't include any of the increase in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. Nonetheless, it will still be closely watched. The headline rate is expected to be up 0.5% m/m vs. last month's 0.4%. The y/y rate is expected to match last month's 2.8%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) is estimated to come in at 0.3% m/m, down from last month's 0.4%, while the y/y rate eases to 2.9% from last month's 3.1%.

Tomorrow?s Consumer Price Index (retail inflation) report, however, will be for March. And that will include the rise in energy prices.

But first things first.

We've got today's reports to get through. And we'll see if the market can build on yesterday's gains.

See you tomorrow,