Nasdaq And S&P 500 At New All-Time Highs, FOMC Announcement And More Earnings On Tap For This Week
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Stocks closed mostly higher on Friday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way with 1.63%, and making another new all-time high in the process, followed by the S&P 500 with 0.80%, and making another new all-time high of their own. Both indexes closed higher for the week, making it 4 up weeks in a row. The small-cap Russell 2000 index also closed higher on Friday and for the week, making it 5 up weeks in a row for them.
The last several weeks have been nothing short of amazing. It's been one of the fastest recoveries, not to mention in size and breadth.
From the lows on 3/30, the Dow is up 8.02%; the S&P 500 is up 13.4%; the Nasdaq is up 20.0%; the Russell 2000 is up 15.9%; and the mid-cap S&P 400 is up 11.2%.
On a YTD basis, the gains are a bit more modest, but still impressive with the Dow up 2.43%; the S&P up 4.67%; the Nasdaq up 6.86%; the Russell 2000 up 12.3%; and the S&P 400 up 10.2%.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire set the rebound in motion. But the explosive move higher goes far beyond the Middle East de-escalation and hopes for a permanent peace deal. That includes the resiliency of the economy, surging productivity, the expectation for lower interest rates, double-digit earnings growth not only for this earnings season, but also for the next 3 quarters, and of course the ongoing (and accelerating) AI boom.
Don't worry if you missed the move, or wished you would have taken better advantage of it. Because I'm expecting a lot more upside to go.
As I've said before, I'm expecting the current AI tech-boom to mirror the dot-com tech-boom in 1995-1999. Back then we saw 5 years in a row of double-digit gains.
After three years in a row of double-digit gains (2023 was up 24.2%, '24 was up 23.3%, and '25 was up 16.4%), this year would make it number 4.
The market also got a boost on Friday when it was reported that the probe into sitting Fed Chair Jerome Powell was being dropped. Senator Thom Tillis had vowed to hold up his confirmation as long as the investigation into Mr. Powell continued. With that out of the way, and Senator Tillis expected to remove his objection, the confirmation of Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is expected in time to replace Mr. Powell when his term ends on May 15.
Earnings season heats up this week with another 901 companies on deck to report, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday -- 5 of the Magnificent 7 stocks.
On the economic report front this week, the main events will be Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, and Friday's PCE inflation report.
While nobody is expecting a rate cut this week, everybody will be listening for hints on future rate cut timing. The Announcement will be followed by Fed Chair Powell's customary Press Conference. And it will be his last, given his term expiration next month.
And on Friday, we'll get the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
With most of the major indexes sitting at or near their all-time highs, the momentum is clearly in the bull's favor. And with another better-than-expected earnings season underway (stocks typically go up during earnings season), that bodes well for more gains to come.
So make sure you're taking full advantage of it.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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