Busy Week In Store For The Markets With Earnings, Fed Meeting And Inflation Data On Tap
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Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notching another new all-time high in the process.
Stalled Middle East peace talks amid a fragile ceasefire and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to grab headlines.
But the de-escalation has allowed the market to focus on what matters most to stocks, and that's earnings and the economy. And gladly, both are giving off bullish signals.
As I mentioned previously, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire set the rebound in motion. But the explosive move higher goes far beyond the de-escalation and hopes for a permanent peace deal. That includes the resiliency of the economy, surging productivity, the expectation for eventual lower interest rates, double-digit earnings growth, not only for this earnings season but also for the next 3 quarters, and of course the ongoing (and accelerating) AI boom.
So far, earnings season has gotten off to a great start. And stocks are responding accordingly.
Earnings season is about to get even busier this week with another 901 companies on deck to report, including 5 of the Magnificent 7 stocks, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta going on Wednesday, and Apple reporting Thursday.
But first, there's plenty of widely-held names on deck to report today. We'll hear from Coca-Cola, and oil giant BP before the open, along with Visa, Booking Holdings, and data-storage company Seagate Technology after the close, to name a handful.
In other news, yesterday's Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index showed the General Production Index slipping to -2.3 vs. last month's -0.2. But the Production Index rose to 19.0 from last month's 6.8.
Today we'll get the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the FHFA House Price Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and Consumer Confidence (always an important report given that roughly 70% of GDP is comprised of consumer spending -- and a confident consumer is a spending consumer).
Also on the economic report docket this week will be Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, and Thursday's PCE inflation report.
While nobody is expecting a rate cut this week, everybody will be listening for hints on the timing of rate cuts in the future. The Announcement will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's customary Press Conference. And it will be his last, given his term expiration next month on May 15.
With Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed in time for Mr. Powell's term ending, this will be the last view of the Fed's monetary outlook before the new chief is at the helm.
On Thursday we'll get the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Recent inflation readings, while still elevated, have come in mostly better-than-expected. But this will be the PCE's first print that encompasses the rising energy prices following the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict. The last PCE report was for February. This one will be for March.
Should be a busy week this week. And if all goes well, we could see the markets set a series of new all-time highs.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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