Waiting on a Middle East Deal as Key Inflation Data for April is Out
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This is Tracey Ryniec filling in for Kevin again. He'll be back tomorrow.
It felt like a summer trading day on Wall Street yesterday as traders finally took a break from the red hot AI Revolution and technology trade and volume was low. Still, several of the major indexes such as the Russell 2000 hit new highs in the session.
The bulls may be tired, but they haven't thrown in the towel yet. Market sentiment is still positive, especially as the earnings continue to be strong in the technology sector. Snowflake and Salesforce both beat with Marvell Technology meeting the estimate. And all three were bullish about the forward outlook.
It's obvious that some stocks are flying high and are probably a little too hot to handle, like the storage stocks like Micron. But we've had plenty of pullbacks in this bull rally so there's always another one around the corner if you don't want to chase here.
NVIDIA, for instance, is down 3.6% over the prior five sessions even after posting another record quarter. This pullback is providing a buying opportunity for those who have been on the sidelines waiting for a chance to get in at a more attractive valuation.
Keep an Eye on Inflation
Oil fell again yesterday, with WTI trading at $89 a barrel, a monthly low. Gasoline is expected to fall the rest of this week in most of the country as oil prices ease, with some states falling back under $4.00 a gallon. This will provide a boost to the consumer and will help lessen inflation fears.
This morning, the important PCE Index for April is released. This is the inflation indicator most watched by the Federal Reserve. The Core PCE in March was over 3% at 3.2% and the PCE index in March came in at 3.5%. The forecast for April, on the overall index, is hotter at 3.8%.
This data will likely be a market mover today, along with the second revision of first quarter GDP, with 2% expected, and the initial jobless claims, which have been trending very low. Last week's jobless claims came in at 209,000 but this is historically a low level, especially given the size of the US labor pool. The forecast is calling for 213,000. They would have to climb to 300,000 to be signaling a recession and they can't even make it past 250,000. That is good news for the economy.
Earnings continue to roll on with Costco and Dell reporting today, after the close. Dell is trading at new all-time highs going into the report with Costco having hit a new high recently. If there is one store that people are committed to, even in tough times, it's Costco.
We're still waiting on a Middle East deal, but Wall Street doesn't seem to care if it gets done or not. The bulls want to keep running.
Best,

Tracey Ryniec
Stock Strategist at Zacks Investment Research , Zacks Investment Research
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