Stocks In Record Territory As Winning Streak Continues
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Stocks closed mostly higher on Friday with all of the major indexes closing higher for the week. We also saw new all-time highs in the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
That makes it 2 up weeks in row for the Dow. A whopping 9 up weeks in a row for the S&P 500. And 2 up weeks in a row for the Nasdaq (but that's 8 up weeks total out of 9). And while we're at it, 2 up weeks in a row for the small-cap Russell 2000 (9 up weeks out of 10).
What a couple of months it's been.
As great as it's been, I'm expecting a lot more upside to go.
For one, it's not every day you get a transformational AI boom that will not only reshape business as we know it, but touch virtually every industry, and everyday lives.
Second, the earnings growth forecasts are nothing short of astounding. Q1'26 earnings season, which is almost over, is on pace for a 24.1% EPS growth rate. Wow. Q2'26 is forecast at 21.0%. Q3'26 is put at 18.1%. And Q4'26 is expected to come in at 20.0%. Earnings are what drive stocks. And the double-digit EPS growth rate forecasts make it easy to see where the calls for big double-digit gains in the market are coming from.
Given the above (and a whole host of other bullish indicators), I'm expecting at least another 2 years of double-digit gains, if not more.
That also seems to be the sentiment of legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones as well. Just the other week he said that the AI-driven bull market still has "another year or two to run," and compared it to the late 1990's tech boom.
That has been my sentiment all along, and comports with my expectation that we see 5 years in a row of double-digit market gains, just like we did in the 1995-1999 dot-com boom.
This year (2026), would be year 4, while 2027 would be year 5. But nobody says it has to stop there. Again, with AI being touted as the most transformational tech breakthrough ever, it could very well last much longer.
In other news, Friday's Retail Inventories rose 0.7% m/m vs. last month's 0.7% pace.
Wholesale Inventories were up 0.5% m/m vs. last month's 1.5%.
And the Chicago PMI jumped to 62.7 vs. last month's 49.2 and views for 51.2. That's a 27.4% increase.
On Thursday it was reported that the U.S. and Iran had tentatively entered into a "memorandum of understanding," which extends the formal ceasefire for 60 days, and continues negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. It also would begin the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz with Iran removing their mines within 30 days, followed by the U.S. gradually lifting their naval blockade.
The sticking point, of course, is Iran's nuclear program, their uranium stockpiles, and future enrichment. Negotiations are to continue during that 60-day period.
However, the deal is not yet official, as President Trump still has to sign off on it. And it has been reported that the President wanted "a couple of days to think about it" before making a final determination.
YTD, the Dow is up 6.18%; the S&P 500 is up 10.7%; the Nasdaq is up 16.1%, the Russell 2000 is up 17.6%; and the mid-cap S&P 400 is up 12.1%.
We'll see if the markets can extend their winning streak for yet another week this week.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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