Stocks Closed Higher For The Week, U.S. And Iran Agree To Peace Deal
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Stocks closed higher on Friday and for the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 both made new all-time highs in the process.
Optimism that a U.S.-Iran peace deal was near helped lift stocks.
And on Sunday, President Trump said the deal (Memorandum of Understanding or MOU) is "now complete." The President said, "I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and simultaneously authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade."
Note: over the next 60 days, talks around implementation of various aspects of the deal will be hashed out. And Iran has said it will respond to any breaches of the commitment.
Nonetheless, the deal is to "immediately and permanently" end the war.
An official signing ceremony is expected to take place on Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.
(The G7 meeting this week, which President Trump will attend, starts on Monday in France, and typically lasts 3 days. So, the signing ceremony will follow the G7 meeting.)
The market also got a boost from the long-awaited SpaceX IPO. It debuted at $150 (roughly 11% higher than the IPO offer price). As trading got underway, it hit a high of $176.52. By the close it remained well supported and finished at $160.95, up 19.2% on the day.
Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire. And it's estimated that roughly 4,400 employees became millionaires. Out of that, it's believed 400 or so became centimillionaires. And a handful became billionaires. Pretty amazing.
Within the next 30 days, the banks who underwrote the IPO can exercise the Greenshoe option, allowing them to acquire 15% additional shares at the IPO offer price. That's approximately 83.3 million shares (over-allotment). That would increase total shares outstanding (a roughly 0.64% dilution), and dilute public shares (float) by roughly 15%. Note, if underwriters choose not to exercise the option, it's usually because demand is weak and the price has fallen below the IPO offer price. A fully exercised Greenshoe option signals strong demand. In spite of the initial dilution, it's a bullish sign for investors if the exercise takes place.
Today will be the second trading day for SpaceX. You can be sure plenty of eyeballs will be on it. And for the next 30 days, at least.
In other news, Friday's Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 48.9, up from last month's 44.8 and views for 46.0. The Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations came in at 4.6%, down from last month's 4.8% and expectations for the same.
After last week's two inflation reports, the build-up to a Middle East peace deal, and the SpaceX IPO (will be a tough act to follow), the main event this week will be the Fed's 2-day FOMC meeting, concluding with their FOMC Announcement on Wednesday, 6/17. This will be the first meeting helmed by the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Additionally, we'll get the Fed's next SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), which only comes out 4 times a year (quarterly). And it will provide outlooks for GDP, unemployment, and the Fed Funds rate, for the next 3 years.
The latest FOMC Minutes from the Fed meeting in May, showed the Fed as somewhat split, with some looking for rate cuts, while others were considering possible rate hikes if inflation persists.
Last quarter's SEP, however, still suggested a quarter point rate cut by year's end. We'll see if that sentiment remains in this quarter's SEP or if that is modified.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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