Stocks Up After Another Softer Inflation Report And Robust Earnings
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Stocks closed higher again yesterday, this time across the board. And new highs were seen in the S&P 500, the small-cap Russell 2000, and the mid-cap S&P 400.
Big earnings continue to send stocks higher. No surprise as stocks typically go up during earnings season. But this earnings season is looking especially impressive, with the projected EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 at 43.3%. Pretty spectacular.
The market also cheered the better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) wholesale inflation report. The headline numbers showed the m/m change at 0.0% vs. last month's -0.1% and views for 0.2%. The y/y rate eased to 4.7% from last month's 5.5% and below estimates for 4.9%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) came in at 0.2% m/m, in line with last month's 0.2%, and below the forecast for 0.3%. The y/y rate was at 4.2% vs. last month's 4.7% and on par with the consensus for 4.2%.
The report underscored, once again, that structural inflation is indeed easing. And even headline inflation, which includes the volatile energy market, is softening as well.
That comes on the heels of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) retail inflation report, which also showed inflation easing.
This is important because the Fed, over the last couple of meetings, has been hinting at a possible rate hike if inflation were to keep ticking higher. But instead, inflation, has been going lower. And that's great news, because the latest reports support the Fed's decision to pause on rates rather than rushing to raise them. Quite frankly, if inflation can continue to weaken, it helps build the case for a return to cutting.
In other news yesterday, Weekly Jobless Claims were up 9,000 to 209,000 vs. the consensus for 203,000. The smoother 4-week moving average, however, came in at 199,000.
Today we'll get Retail Sales, Business Inventories, the Baker Hughes Rig Count Report, and the always important Consumer Sentiment Report (as a happy and confident consumer is a consumer who spends -- and since roughly 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending, it's a number to watch).
Of course, the market will also be looking for any news out of the Middle East on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Continued attacks on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are keeping tensions elevated. But oil has risen only moderately over the last several weeks. And there's still hope that some type of deal that allows traffic to flow more regularly will come soon.
In the meantime, most of the major indexes are poised to close higher for the week. If so, that would make it the third up week in a row for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000.
Best,

, Zacks Investment Research
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