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Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction)

Top Stocks to Beat Earnings

Symbol Company
ESP Most Accurate
Price Zacks Rank %Surprise
(lst Qtr.)
Reporting Date
ABBV AbbVie I 2.65% 1.97 1.91 89.50 2 6.47% 01/25/19
PGR The Prog 1.82% 1.03 1.01 64.42 1 37.72% 01/23/19
ISRG Intuitiv 2.63% 3.07 2.99 542.55 2 6.79% 01/24/19
CELG Celgene 2.31% 2.37 2.32 86.27 3 2.23% 01/24/19
PG Procter 0.66% 1.22 1.21 91.42 2 2.75% 01/23/19

Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) looks to find companies that have recently seen positive earnings estimate revision activity. The idea is that more recent information is, generally speaking, more accurate and can be a better predictor of the future, which can give investors an advantage in earnings season.

The technique has proven to be very useful for finding positive surprises. In fact, when combining a Zacks Rank #3 or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time, while they also saw 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

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See the Full List of Stocks To Beat Earnings

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Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for


Company Symbol Price %Chg
Abercrombie... ANF 20.72 +4.86%
Restoration... RH 135.32 +4.39%
Macro Bank... BMA 53.83 +4.20%
Allison Tra... ALSN 49.90 +3.27%
Air France-... AFLYY 11.00 +3.19%

Focus List Top Performers


Symbol Price Added Current Price %Chg
SQ 17.25 72.06 +318.78%
UNH 120.33 265.13 +120.64%
LULU 73.64 151.75 +106.50%
MSFT 55.09 107.40 +95.52%
BA 203.96 364.27 +78.82%

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Zacks Equity Research


  • Qep Resources, Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/18/19

    QEP Resources’ deep focus in the prolific Permian play along with its operational efficiency bode well.

  • Sony Corporation
    Upgraded: 01/18/19

    Over the past two years, Sony has been taking a series of concerted efforts to attain a leaner organizational structure to augment growth. The company announced a number of changes in its internal administration.

  • Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/18/19

  • Twenty-first Century Fox, Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/17/19

    Fox Network strength, high viewership of the business channel, long term sports rights, expanding portfolio of regional sports channels are key catalysts.

  • Netgear, Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/17/19

    NETGEAR continues to focus on introducing new products into growth areas which form the basis of Smart Homes. Also, the company expects solid growth in Arlo business.

  • Pricesmart, Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/17/19

    PriceSmart’s strategy to sell limited products at lower prices has helped it to generate member loyalty and higher sales. Notably, the company offers a limited number of stock keeping units with large pack sizes.

  • American Financial Group, Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/17/19

    American Financial, is a niche player in the P&C and annuity markets, will benefit from the strategic acquisitions and improved pricing. Improving industry fundamentals will drive overall growth.

  • Sanofi
    Upgraded: 01/17/19

    Sanofi has several new products in its portfolio and candidates in its pipeline that can contribute to long-term growth.

  • Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/17/19

    Ollie's Bargain’s business model of “buying cheap and selling cheap”, cost-containment efforts, sturdy comps performance and customer reward program fortify its position.

  • Merck & Co., Inc.
    Upgraded: 01/03/19

    New drugs like Keytruda Lynparza, and Bridion and Animal Health unit are driving sales at Merck - a trend which is expected to continue.

New Downgrades: TXN, SYY, SJM, JW.A, VMI, TRV, TEL, TEF, STX, ZTS

  • Texas Instruments Incorporated
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    We remain concerned about risks associated with competition, seasonality and a high debt level.

  • Sysco Corporation
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    Sysco has long been witnessing cost inflation, which has been denting its margins.

  • The J. M. Smucker Company
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    Divestiture of U.S. Baking business, lower pricing, competitive activity and rising freight expenses are likely to weigh on fiscal 2019 earnings.

  • John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    John Wiley & Sons continues to witness soft performance at its Publishing segment and expects the same to remain a bit challenging in fiscal 2019 due to declines in print.

  • Valmont Industries, Inc.
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    Low farm income and uncertainties around trade are hurting Valmont's irrigation unit. The utility business is also facing a challenging environment in Northern Europe.

  • The Travelers Companies, Inc.
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    Exposure to catastrophe, low investment income and a stiff competition are some of the headwinds faced by the company.

  • Te Connectivity Ltd.
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    Sluggishness in oil and gas markets and its derivative impact on other industrial markets will likely act as strong headwinds for TE Connectivity. Also, low prices in oil & gas are hurting industrial equipment sales.

  • Telefonica Sa
    Downgraded: 01/18/19

    Competitive domestic and Latin-American markets along with a debt laden balance sheet act as near-term risks for Telefonica.

  • Seagate Technology Plc
    Downgraded: 01/17/19

    Sluggish macroeconomic conditions, a flattish price environment, and competition from Western Digital and SanDisk remain near-term headwinds.

  • Zoetis Inc.
    Downgraded: 01/17/19

    Development and regulatory setbacks for late-stage pipeline candidates would be a major disappointment for the company. Stiff competition in the animal health space remains a threat as well.

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