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Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction)

Top Stocks to Beat Earnings

Symbol Company
ESP Most Accurate
Price Zacks Rank %Surprise
(lst Qtr.)
Reporting Date
FUL H. B. Fu 0.59% 0.68 0.68 55.96 3 -7.46% 09/20/17
KMX CarMax I 3.18% 0.97 0.94 68.46 2 15.31% 09/22/17
RHT Red Hat, 0.21% 0.67 0.67 107.14 3 7.69% 09/25/17
MBLY Mobileye 1.96% 0.26 0.26 62.67 3 0.00% 09/26/17
THO Thor Ind 2.80% 2.02 1.97 114.90 2 12.83% 09/27/17

Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) looks to find companies that have recently seen positive earnings estimate revision activity. The idea is that more recent information is, generally speaking, more accurate and can be a better predictor of the future, which can give investors an advantage in earnings season.

The technique has proven to be very useful for finding positive surprises. In fact, when combining a Zacks Rank #3 or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time, while they also saw 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

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See the Full List of Stocks To Beat Earnings

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Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers


Company Symbol Price %Chg
ANGLO AMER... NGLOY 9.35 +6.13%
SkyWest, In... SKYW 42.10 +2.81%
Alcoa Corp.... AA 47.49 +2.77%
Werner Ente... WERN 35.30 +1.95%
Kraton Corp... KRA 34.03 +1.95%

Focus List Top Performers


Symbol Price Added Current Price %Chg
NVDA 32.75 187.35 +472.06%
FB 57.94 172.52 +197.76%
LRCX 100.49 177.12 +76.26%
WGO 23.30 39.25 +68.45%
SQ 17.25 28.56 +65.57%

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New Upgrades: JW.A, URI, CCI, SHW, MSI, PVH, PEG, FE, NOC, RTN

  • John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    To acquire a greater market share, John Wiley & Sons has taken up inorganic expansion in a big way. Over the years, the company has acquired several publishing and distribution companies along with various online service providers.

  • United Rentals, Inc.
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    Acquisition of NES Rentals is expected to boost United Rentals’ revenues, earnings, EBITDA, free cash flow and overall scale

  • Crown Castle International Corporation
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    The acquisition of Wilcon will enable Crown Castle attain ownership over 28,000 route miles of fiber.

  • Sherwin-williams Company (the)
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    Sherwin-Williams is gaining from its cost reduction initiatives and is focusing on growth through acquisitions and expansion of operations. The Valspar buyout has positioned it as a leading paints and coatings provider globally.

  • Motorola Solutions, Inc.
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    We are impressed by the company's growth-by-acquisition strategy, which has broadened its product portfolio.

  • Pvh Corp.
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    PVH Corp.’s sales marked its fourth consecutive beat in second-quarter fiscal 2017, while earnings maintained its positive surprise trend for the 13th straight time.

  • Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    Consistent investments in infrastructure projects and focus on expanding renewable assets, backed by a stable liquidity position, will likely boost Public Service Enterprise’s future performance.

  • Firstenergy Corporation
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    FirstEnergy’s broadening regulated base and growing transmission lines are expected to boost earnings. The Energizing the Future initiative will add to the company’s overall operational strength.

  • Northrop Grumman Corporation
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    Northrop Grumman Corporation's product innovation and focus on strengthening its ISR wing will help maintain a stable earnings stream

  • Raytheon Company
    Upgraded: 09/19/17

    Foreign military contracts continue to be the vital growth driver for Raytheon. Rising demand from the Gulf countries and Asia-Pacific will also boost revenues.


  • Theravance Biopharma, Inc.
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Overdependence on Vibativ is concerning. Lower-than-expected sales of the product would affect the company's top line significantly. Stiff competition remains a threat as well.

  • Seagate Technology Plc
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Sluggish macroeconomic conditions, a flattish price environment, and competition from Western Digital and SanDisk remain near-term headwinds.

  • Snap-on Incorporated
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Fluctuations in petroleum and energy prices will likely raise Snap On’s operating costs, thereby adding to its woes. Also, Snap-on faces stiff competition across its all market segments.

  • Stone Energy Corporation
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Growing exploration exposure to the mature, low reserve life GoM shelf is expected to aggravate Stone Energy’s risk profile.

  • Delta Air Lines, Inc.
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Delta trimmed its current-quarter views for passenger unit revenue and and operating margin.

  • Quality Systems, Inc.
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Unfavorable product mix, global economic weakness, intensifying competition and growing integration risk due to frequent acquisitions are major concerns. 

  • Qualcomm Incorporated
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Aggressive competition in the mobile phone chipset market may hurt Qualcomm’s profits in the future

  • Southwest Airlines Company
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Southwest Airlines gave a bearish view for the current quarter mainly due to Harvey.

  • Ebay Inc.
    Downgraded: 09/19/17

    Mounting competition from Amazon and Alibaba, increasing investments and a weak global economy are major overhangs.

  • Johnson & Johnson
    Downgraded: 09/16/17

    Challenges for the company remain in the form of generic competition, pricing pressure and pipeline setbacks.

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