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Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction)

Top Stocks to Beat Earnings

Symbol Company
ESP Most Accurate
Price Zacks Rank %Surprise
(lst Qtr.)
Reporting Date
DRI Darden R 5.71% 0.74 0.70 86.96 2 1.02% 12/19/17
NAV Navistar 17.46% 0.74 0.63 40.15 3 32.14% 12/19/17
FINL The Fini 2.70% -0.36 -0.37 11.72 3 9.09% 12/21/17
NKE Nike, In 5.13% 0.41 0.39 64.53 3 18.75% 12/21/17
NEOG Neogen C 2.94% 0.35 0.34 79.62 3 3.33% 01/03/18

Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) looks to find companies that have recently seen positive earnings estimate revision activity. The idea is that more recent information is, generally speaking, more accurate and can be a better predictor of the future, which can give investors an advantage in earnings season.

The technique has proven to be very useful for finding positive surprises. In fact, when combining a Zacks Rank #3 or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time, while they also saw 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

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See the Full List of Stocks To Beat Earnings

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Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers


Company Symbol Price %Chg
Comtech Tel... CMTL 23.15 +4.99%
Rush Enterp... RUSHA 49.53 +4.67%
Cumulus Med... CMLSQ 0.09 +4.47%
Conn's, Inc... CONN 33.95 +4.46%
Universal F... UFPI 37.98 +3.49%

Focus List Top Performers


Symbol Price Added Current Price %Chg
NVDA 32.75 186.47 +469.37%
FB 57.94 178.39 +207.89%
WGO 23.30 54.90 +135.62%
SQ 17.25 37.01 +114.55%
UNH 120.33 221.26 +83.88%

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Zacks Equity Research


  • Total System Services, Inc.
    Upgraded: 12/14/17

    Higher transaction volumes, new accounts, diversified portfolio, strong network alliances and acquistions will drive long term growth of Total System.

  • Pioneer Natural Resources Company
    Upgraded: 12/14/17

    Pioneer Natural Resources is focused on the Permian Basin, which is among the lucrative oil shale plays with lesser risks.

  • Concho Resources Inc.
    Upgraded: 12/14/17

    Concho Resources' strategic acreage position in the Permian Basin is expected to drive continued productivity gains.

  • Applied Materials, Inc.
    Upgraded: 12/14/17

    Ongoing strength in the 3D NAND market, 10nm logic processes,  strength in foundry and growth in the Chinese market will drive the business.

  • Altra Industrial Motion Corp.
    Upgraded: 12/14/17

    Altra Industrial Motion holds solid growth potential, backed by a diversified product portfolio. Also, acquisitions remain the company's preferred mode for expanding its business opportunities.

  • Wesco International, Inc.
    Upgraded: 12/12/17

    WESCO enjoys a strong market position and a global account model, and its business is currently being driven by strengthening end markets and its One WESCO value proposition.

  • Bruker Corporation
    Upgraded: 12/12/17

    Bruker’s recent acquisition of Jordan Valley Semiconductors buoys optimism for its growth in the semiconductor metrology market. The recent expansion rebound in NMR business is also encouraging.

  • Allstate Corporation (the)
    Upgraded: 12/09/17

    Strong performance of property-liability segment, improving investment income, solid balance sheet with efficient capital management are expected to drive long term growth.

  • First Solar, Inc.
    Upgraded: 12/09/17

    First Solar’s constant product innovation efforts will continue to attract customers and expand its revenue stream. The booming solar market in the U.S. will propel top-line growth.

  • Honda Motor Company, Ltd.
    Upgraded: 12/09/17

    Honda’s focus on product and infrastructure development, and new product launches should help to boost sales.

New Downgrades: DVA, ABM, JCI, NBR, UIS, BHP, AYI, FDS, PM, RLI

  • Davita Healthcare Partners Inc.
    Downgraded: 12/14/17

    High debt levels, adverse effects of healthcare reforms, and an increase in MA beneficiaries are concerns.

  • Abm Industries Incorporated
    Downgraded: 12/14/17

    Given the low cost of entry into the facility services business, ABM faces intense competition from local and national players.

  • Johnson Controls International Plc
    Downgraded: 12/14/17

    Currency headwinds, divestiture of several businesses and volatility in commodity prices are some concerns for Johnson Controls.

  • Nabors Industries Ltd.
    Downgraded: 12/14/17

    Escalating costs and expenses have increased the leverage of the company, which is likely affect its credit metrics adversely.

  • Unisys Corporation
    Downgraded: 12/14/17

    Significant pension obligations under its U.S. and non-U.S. defined benefit pension plans and currency headwinds are likely to be a drag on Unisys' earnings in the future.

  • Bhp Billiton Limited
    Downgraded: 12/13/17

    Headwinds such as stiff industry rivalry, outbreak of any natural calamity, unfavorable exploration and mining regulations or a sudden oversupply situation might hurt BHP Billiton's near-term results.

  • Acuity Brands Inc
    Downgraded: 12/13/17

    Lack of skilled labor, uncertainty over tax regulations and pricing pressure in certain end markets are leading to softness in the lighting industry

  • Factset Research Systems Inc.
    Downgraded: 12/13/17

    Declining client retention ratio is a major concern for FactSet. We believe failing in retaining old clients will negatively impact the company’s near-term top-line growth.

  • Philip Morris International Inc
    Downgraded: 12/13/17

    Philip Morris struggles with declining cigarette volumes due to reduced demand, rising health concerns, higher taxes and anti-tobacco campaigns.

  • Rli Corp.
    Downgraded: 10/11/17

    Though premiums increased, the company's growth moderated amidst competitive market conditions.

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