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Hologic (HOLX) Down 5.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hologic (HOLX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hologic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Hologic Q4 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Margins Rise

Hologic reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings per share of $2.07, up 218.5% year over year. Moreover, the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 69.7%.

The adjustments include charges and benefits related to amortization of acquired intangible assets, MDR expenses and non-income-tax settlement adjustment to name a few.

The company’s GAAP earnings per share was $1.88, up from the loss per share of 46 cents in the year-ago period.

Full-year adjusted earnings per share was $3.98, reflecting a 63.8% surge from the year-earlier $2.43. Again, the metric surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26.8%.

Full-year GAAP earnings per share was $4.21, up from the year-earlier loss of 76 cents per share.

Revenues in Detail

Revenues grossed $1.35 billion in the reported quarter, up 55.6% year over year (up 54.2% at CER), including revenues from the divested Medical Aesthetics business in the year-ago period. The metric exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.7%.

Excluding the divested Blood Screening and Medical Aesthetics businesses, total revenues were $1.34 billion, up 73.3% year over year and 71.7% at CER. This primarily resulted from robust sales of tests related to COVID-19.

Organic revenues (excluding divestitures and the acquired SuperSonic Imagine or SSI business) of $1.33 billion increased 72.5% year over year and 70.9% at CER.

U.S. revenues of $994.9 million rose 51.6%, whereas international revenues of $352.1 million improved 68% year over year or 62.1% at CER.

Organically, revenues in the United States rose 64% year over year to $985 million in the quarter. International revenues were up 102.2% year over year (up 95% at CER) to $346.8 million.

Full-year revenues were $3.78 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase from the year-ago period. Organic revenue growth for the year was 22%. Revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.4%.

Segments in Detail

Revenues at the Diagnostics segment rose 206.1% year over year (up 202.8% at CER) to $939 million in the quarter under review, with Molecular Diagnostics being the major driver. Molecular Diagnostics’ revenues of $818.9 million climbed 375.8% (up 370.8% at CER), continuing the division’s strong performance. However, Blood Screening revenues of $8.7 million fell 47.9% year over year (down 48.2% at CER).

Revenues at the Breast Health segment declined 15.6% from the year-ago period (down 16.2% at CER) to $289.2 million. This primarily resulted from adverse impacts on demand for this segment’s products due to customers’ focus on responding to the pandemic, delayed or reduced purchases of capital equipment and rescheduled routine screening appointments. However, consumables and service revenues are gradually recovering and the flat interventional business was aided by the relaunch of the Brevera biopsy system late in the quarter. These developments cushioned the overall segmental decline.

Domestic sales were dismal in this segment in the quarter, with a 16.1% revenue decline year over year and 16.4% drop without SSI. Further, outside the United States, Breast Health sales decreased 13.6% in total and fell 21.1% without SSI.

Revenues at the GYN Surgical business fell 12.5% year over year (down 12.9% at CER) to $100.2 million, while revenues at Skeletal Health dropped 25.6% year over year (down 26.3% at CER) to $18.6 million.

Notably, Hologic no longer reports for the Medical Aesthetics segment post the divestiture of Cynosure Medical Aesthetics business on Dec 30, 2019.

Operational Update

In fiscal fourth quarter, the company-reported adjusted gross margin expanded 1,250 basis points to 74.2%. According to the company, the benefits resulted from sales of SARS-CoV-2 tests and the divestiture of the lower-margin Medical Aesthetics business.

Adjusted operating expenses amounted to $276.6 million, down 1% year over year. However, the company-reported adjusted operating margin expanded 2,430 basis points to 53.7%.

Financial Update

Hologic exited fiscal 2020 with cash and cash equivalents of $701 million compared with $601.8 million at the end of fiscal 2019. Total long-term debt (including current portion) was $3.04 billion at the end of fiscal 2020 compared with $3.06 billion at the end of fiscal 2019.

Cumulative net cash provided by operating activities at the end of fiscal 2020 was $896.6 million compared with $649.5 million a year ago.

Guidance

Hologic, boosted by the strength in its COVID-19 tests and the ongoing recovery of its other divisions, has provided the financial guidance for first-quarter fiscal 2021.

The company projects revenues within $1.35-$1.43 billion (projection of 58.7-67.6% growth rate). The growth rate is projected in the range of 56.6-65.4% at CER and within 71.1-80.8% organically. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2021 revenues is pegged at $1.10 billion.

GAAP earnings per share is estimated within $1.88-$2.03, which projects growth of 31.5-42%.

The adjusted earnings per share is estimated within $2.10-$2.25, with projected growth of 244.3-268.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings per share is pegged at $1.18.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 67.39% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Hologic has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Hologic has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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