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Why Is Ventas (VTR) Up 20.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ventas (VTR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 20.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ventas due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Ventas Q3 FFO Beats Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/Y

Ventas reported third-quarter 2020 normalized FFO per share of 75 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. However, the figure declined 22% from the year-ago quarter’s 96 cents.

The company generated revenues of $918.9 million in the third quarter, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $919.3 million. Further, the top line declined 6.5% year over year.

Same-store cash NOI growth supported results. However, top-line growth was impeded by a decline in rental income from triple net leased and office segments. Moreover, the company’s SHOP assets continue to be severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Quarter in Detail

For the third quarter, same-store cash NOI for the total property portfolio (1,086 assets) improved 19.1% year over year. This was largely supported by a cash consideration of $162 million received from the revised master lease agreement with Brookdale.

Hence, segment wise, same-store cash NOI for the triple-net leased portfolio grew 90.2% year over year. Meanwhile, SHOP portfolio reported a plunge of 42.2% year over year and the office portfolio declined 2.2%.

Balance Sheet Position

Ventas exited third-quarter 2020 with cash and cash equivalents of $58.3 million, down from the $106.4 million recorded as of 2019 end. Further, as of Sep 30, 2020, its annualized adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio was 6.8X.

The company had $3.2 billion of liquidity, consisting of $0.3 billion of cash and cash equivalents, $2.9 billion of available capacity on hand, and no commercial paper outstanding as of Nov 5.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Ventas has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, Ventas has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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